A cyclone or monsoon flood kills 100 or more people in Sri Lanka
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, one cyclone, storm or monsoon flood event kills 100 or more people in Sri Lanka (Disaster Management Centre count).
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Cyclone Ditwah, in late November 2025, killed 646 people in Sri Lanka, with 173 still missing, and did about US$4.1bn of direct damage, about 4% of GDP. The window holds the rest of the 2026 north-east monsoon and cyclone season and the 2027 south-west monsoon; a far smaller storm would meet this card's threshold.
Why Likelihood 3 No second driver is sourced, so 3.
Why Impact 4 Scored at the threshold of 100 deaths.
The other facts on file (4)
- Cyclone Ditwah killed 646 people with 173 missing (Disaster Management Centre count to 29 Dec 2025) [1] (23 Jan 2026)
- Nearly 6,000 houses destroyed, over 108,000 damaged; more than 170,000 people still displaced or with host families [1] (23 Jan 2026)
- Ditwah severely affected close to 2 million people in all 25 districts [2] (22 Dec 2025)
- Direct damage about US$4.1bn, about 4% of GDP; US$1.735bn to roads, bridges, railways and water supply; housing about US$985m; agriculture about US$814m [2] (22 Dec 2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, one cyclone, storm or monsoon flood event kills 100 or more people in Sri Lanka (Disaster Management Centre count).
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Transport and supplyRoads, bridges and rail took the largest share of Ditwah's damage [2]; a new event would cut inland freight again.
- Public financeReconstruction spending competes with the IMF programme's fiscal targets.
- Households and foodHousing and farms took the next largest shares of Ditwah's damage after infrastructure [2].
Sectors 3
- Ports and logistics
- Agriculture and food
- Households
Countries 1
- Sri Lanka primary
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Sri Lanka.
- Sectors
- Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food, Households
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Quiet seasons
Storms and monsoon floods stay below 100 deaths.
- S2
One deadly flood
A monsoon flood or weaker cyclone crosses 100 deaths.
- S3
Repeat of Ditwah
A severe cyclone strikes before rebuilding ends.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | No Disaster Management Centre count above 50 in December 2026 |
| S2 | A national disaster declaration during the 2027 south-west monsoon |
| S3 | A severe cyclone warning in late 2026 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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The other side
Ditwah's toll pushed early-warning and evacuation work up the agenda; better warnings can hold a similar storm's deaths far lower (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Sri Lanka
- The IMF Board has not completed Sri Lanka's seventh review by 31 Jan 2027 Drives: Disaster spending strains the programme's 2027 fiscal targets.
- Sri Lanka has no follow-on IMF deal six months after its programme ends Drives: A large disaster raises the case for, and the cost of, IMF financing after March 2027.
Sources
2 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Cyclone Ditwah - Situation Report (23 January 2026). UN Resident Coordinator Sri Lanka · 23 Jan 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Damage from Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka estimated at $4.1 billion. World Bank · 22 Dec 2025 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks