The IMF Board has not completed Sri Lanka's seventh review by 31 Jan 2027
The test By 31 Jan 2027 the IMF Executive Board has not completed the seventh review of Sri Lanka's Extended Fund Facility.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Staff-level agreement on the seventh review; about US$345m (SDR 254m) on Board completion; total about US$2.7bn of a US$3bn arrangement approved 20 Mar 2023 [1]
- Board approval needs a 2027 Budget in line with the programme and completion of the financing assurances review [1]
- Risks: Middle East war, global trade policy, El Niño; reserves US$6.9bn end-August; growth 4.2% in Q2; inflation 8% in September [1]
- Fuel import bill US$4.07bn in Jan-Aug 2026, up 61.6% [3]
- WMO expects a very strong El Niño into 2027 [5]
Why it matters
IMF staff and Sri Lanka reached a staff-level agreement on the seventh review of the Extended Fund Facility on 4 Oct 2026, worth about US$345m. Board approval waits on a 2027 Budget in line with the programme and on a financing assurances review. Completion by end-January is the base case; a slip is possible.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: two conditions open (2027 Budget, financing assurances review); downside risks named by the IMF. Brake: the staff-level agreement.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case a delay past 31 January.
The other facts on file (1)
- About half of Sri Lanka's remittances come from the Middle East (CBSL 2025 Q4 bulletin) [2] (24 Mar 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- The IMF Board has not completed Sri Lanka's seventh review by 31 Jan 2027Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Sri Lanka
How it spreads
By 31 Jan 2027 the IMF Executive Board has not completed the seventh review of Sri Lanka's Extended Fund Facility.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- ReservesA delay holds back about US$345m [1].
- MarketsA delay could weigh on bond prices and confidence in the restructuring (Strature's view).
Sectors 1
- Banks and insurers
Countries 1
- Sri Lanka primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Sri Lanka
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
On time
The Budget passes and the Board completes the review by January.
- S2
Short slip
The financing assurances review drags into February or March.
- S3
Combined review
The seventh review is folded into the eighth.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Budget presented in line with the programme |
| S2 | No Board date by mid-January |
| S3 | A staff mission on both reviews |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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The other side
Eleven straight quarters of growth and US$6.9bn in reserves [1] give Sri Lanka room to absorb a short delay.
Connected in Strature
- Sri Lanka
- Sri Lanka keeps weekly fuel quotas on motorists Shares a channel: The IMF asks for fuel prices that follow world prices.
- A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply Driven by: IMF staff name El Niño as a risk to the programme.
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- IMF reaches staff-level agreement on the seventh review under the EFF with Sri Lanka (PR 26/318). International Monetary Fund · 4 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Middle East conflict: the impact on migration and remittances in Sri Lanka. Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka · 24 Mar 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Sri Lanka's fuel import bill jumps over 60 pct through August. Xinhua · 4 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027. World Meteorological Organization · 3 Sep 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks