Sri Lanka keeps weekly fuel quotas on motorists
The test On at least one day between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027 Sri Lanka limits weekly retail fuel sales to private motorists under the national QR quota system (the quota in force on 1 Nov 2026 counts).
Under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Sri Lanka brought back its QR National Fuel Pass on 15 Mar 2026, capping weekly fuel for each vehicle after the Hormuz disruption. The state oil company says it has no plans to end the system for now and will keep it in the long term. The question is whether rationing persists through the next year.
Why Likelihood 8 Not 9-10: the CPC says quotas are revised with developments, and the IMF asks for fuel prices that follow world prices, a route to ending rationing.
Why Impact 5 Threshold case one day of quotas. Estimate (no cited figure for the quota's cost).
The other facts on file (4)
- QR quota from 15 Mar 2026: cars 15 litres a week, motorcycles 5; stocks about 33 days of diesel and 27 of petrol [1] (16 Mar 2026)
- CPC raised quotas on 21 Mar: cars 25 litres, three-wheelers 20, motorcycles 8 [2] (21 Mar 2026)
- CPC chairman: QR system kept in the long term; quotas revised depending on developments [3] (21 Apr 2026)
- CPC managing director: no plans to end the QR quota system for now [4] (17 Jul 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Sri Lanka keeps weekly fuel quotas on motoristsImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 8 of 10, High. · Sri Lanka · Under way
How it spreads
On at least one day between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027 Sri Lanka limits weekly retail fuel sales to private motorists under the national QR quota system (the quota in force on 1 Nov 2026 counts).
Under way nowChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Motorists and transportWeekly caps limit driving and push costs onto commuters and small transport firms.
- Foreign exchangeThe CPC says the system helps manage reserves.
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Sri Lanka
- Sectors
- Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food
- Goods
- Diesel
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Quotas end
Supply eases and the CPC lifts the pass.
- S2
Quotas stay
The pass runs on with periodic revisions.
- S3
Quotas cut
A new Gulf shock forces lower caps or halts sales; a possible separate escalation risk.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A CPC notice ending the QR system |
| S2 | A revised quota table |
| S3 | F-0074 resolves yes by 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it F-0074 resolves yes by 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [8] Declared · Strature date
- 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
The QR pass curbs hoarding and spreads scarce stocks fairly, and lets Sri Lanka save foreign exchange.
Connected in Strature
- Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike
- Strait of Hormuz
- Sri Lanka
- IEA members agree a second emergency oil stock release Driven by: Tight world oil stocks keep Sri Lanka's import supply uncertain.
- Pakistan's petrol or diesel stocks fall below 10 days Shares a channel: The same South Asian fuel squeeze.
- The IMF Board has not completed Sri Lanka's seventh review by 31 Jan 2027 Shares a channel: The IMF asks for fuel prices that follow world prices.
Sources
7 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Sri Lanka introduces weekly fuel quota amid supply uncertainty. Anadolu Agency · 16 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Sri Lanka raises fuel quota for vehicles. EconomyNext · 21 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Sri Lanka to retain QR fuel system indefinitely amid global oil uncertainty. Daily Mirror (Sri Lanka) · 21 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- No plans to end QR code fuel quota system for now - CPC. The Morning · 17 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- IMF reaches staff-level agreement on the seventh review under the EFF with Sri Lanka (PR 26/318). International Monetary Fund · 4 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Sri Lanka's fuel import bill jumps over 60 pct through August. Xinhua · 4 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Forecast register, row F-0074. Strature · 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks