Pakistan's petrol or diesel stocks fall below 10 days
The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, Pakistan's national stock of petrol or of diesel falls below 10 days of consumption, as stated by the Petroleum Division, the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) or the Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC).
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Strait of Hormuz closed on 6 Oct 2026; Iran will not reopen it until the June deal's terms are met [4]
- Power circular debt Rs1.675tn breached the end-June 2026 IMF target [13]
- CPI 10.3% in September 2026; urban motor fuel +37.73% y/y [10]
- QatarEnergy force majeure to Pakistani buyers extended into November [9]
- OCAC emergency letter: petrol about 18 days, diesel 27 days; OMCs owed Rs66.7bn, about five petrol cargoes; government committed to pay within 15 days, six months ago (Zaidi) [1]
Why it matters
Pakistan holds only about two weeks of petroleum reserves and buys most of its imported fuel from the Gulf, through a Strait of Hormuz that was still closed on 6 Oct 2026. On 18 Sep the oil companies' council warned that petrol stocks were down to about 18 days and diesel to 27, and that unpaid government dues of Rs66.7bn left importers short of cash. The risk is that stocks fall below 10 days.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: unpaid importers' dues; a closed strait and heavy Gulf dependence; record premiums on product imports; diesel back-up for power when LNG is short. Brakes: cover well above the threshold on 18 Sep; the government's commitment to pay. One near miss in 36 months (March 2026), not rising.
Why Impact 4 Key price: the import premium on petroleum products. Threshold case: diesel cover below 10 days with pumps still supplied.
The other facts on file (8)
- Pakistan held 10-14 days of petroleum reserves (OilPrice.com, unattributed); PIDE proposes expanding strategic reserves to 30-60 days [2] (15 Mar 2026)
- 81% of Pakistan's fuel imports come from the Gulf region (IMF) [3] (23 Apr 2026)
- Petroleum imports US$16.86bn in FY2025-26, products US$6.39bn (PBS) [5] (31 Jul 2026)
- Imports about 43% of product supply in FY2024-25, local refineries about 57% (PACRA, search excerpt, low confidence) [6] (2026)
- Seven RLNG plants over 5,500 MW idle; residual fuel oil burn up to about 400,000 tons [7] (25 Apr 2026)
- Power Division apologised for night-time cuts; missing LNG cargo cut 3,600 MW [8] (30 Aug 2026)
- Record premium on product imports about US$34/bbl, against about US$12 previously (PSO letter via Express Tribune) [11] (21 Apr 2026)
- Energy circular debt Rs5.286tn by June 2026 [12] (19 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, Pakistan's national stock of petrol or of diesel falls below 10 days of consumption, as stated by the Petroleum Division, the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) or the Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC).
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian exposure sourced.
- Transport and farmingLow diesel stocks bring queues and rationing (Strature reading).
- PowerFuel oil and diesel back up plants when LNG is short; scarce fuel deepens load-shedding.
- Prices and budgetEmergency cargoes at record premiums raise pump prices or importers' dues.
Goods 3
- Petrol
- Diesel
- Fuel oil
Sectors 4
- Energy and pipelines
- Road freight
- Agriculture and food
- Power generation
Straits 1
Countries 1
- Pakistan primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Pakistan
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Road freight, Agriculture and food, Power generation
- Goods
- Petrol, Diesel, Fuel oil
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Dues paid, cover holds
The government clears the Rs66.7bn and stocks stay above two weeks.
- S2
Tight winter
LNG stays short, fuel oil demand rises and petrol cover slips towards 10 days.
- S3
Dry pumps
A missed cargo meets low cover and outlets run dry in big cities.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | An OGRA order releasing the claims |
| S2 | An OCAC letter citing fewer than 14 days |
| S3 | OGRA or the Petroleum Division reporting stocks below 10 days |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 End of QatarEnergy's extended force majeure notice to Pakistani buyers (two anonymous trading sources) [9] Tentative · Outside event
- 20 Nov 2026 Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran) resolves Declared · Strature date
- 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Strait of Hormuz
- Pakistan
- Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026 Shares a channel: An LNG shortfall raises fuel oil demand for power.
- Pakistani forces fight the Houthis in Yemen Shares a channel: The Gulf war that shapes Pakistan's fuel supply.
Sources
13 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Pakistan faces fuel shortage risk as OMCs await Rs66.7bn in dues. Daily Independent · 18 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Middle East Crisis Could Triple Pakistan's Oil Import Bill. OilPrice.com · 15 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Pakistan: Third Review under the EFF and Second Review under the RSF, Country Report No. 26/101. International Monetary Fund · 23 Apr 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Pakistan briefs UN chief on US-Iran mediation efforts during Islamabad talks. Arab News Pakistan · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Pakistan's fuel imports rise 5.76% to $16.86 billion in FY26. Profit (Pakistan Today) · 31 Jul 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Pakistan's OMC sector posts Rs4.42tr revenue in FY25 (PACRA study). Profit (Pakistan Today) · 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
- Pakistan moves to import spot LNG after Qatar supply halt shuts seven power plants. Profit (Pakistan Today) · 25 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Govt says sorry for daily load shedding. ProPakistani · 30 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- QatarEnergy extends LNG force majeure (Reuters). Dawn · 29 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Pakistan's inflation stays above 10% in September 2026 as fuel, transport costs surge. Profit (Pakistan Today) · 1 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Pakistan Is Now Paying a Record Premium for Fuel Imports. OilPrice.com · 21 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Energy sector circular debt widens to nearly Rs5.3 trillion in FY2025-26. The Nation · 19 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- IMF shares first MEFP draft with Pakistan ahead of staff-level talks. Daily Times · 4 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks