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World risk · Finance and markets

Sri Lanka has no follow-on IMF deal six months after its programme ends

The test By 30 Sep 2027 Sri Lanka has neither a new IMF financing arrangement approved by the Executive Board nor a staff-level agreement on one (judged on that date).

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Opposition MP Ravi Karunanayake: the programme ends in March 2027 and there must be a successor; no government reply reported [2]
  2. IMF Board approved the EFF on 20 Mar 2023, SDR 2.3bn (about US$3bn) [1]
  3. Staff-level agreement on the seventh review, about US$345m; Board completion needs the 2027 Budget in line with programme parameters and a financing assurances review [1]
  4. Gross official reserves US$6.9bn at end-August 2026; IMF names the Middle East war as a downside risk [1]

Why it matters

Sri Lanka's four-year IMF programme, the anchor of its recovery from the 2022 default, ends in March 2027. IMF staff agreed the seventh review on 4 Oct 2026, but no government request for a follow-on arrangement is on record, and an opposition MP asked Parliament on 22 Oct 2026 what comes next.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the EFF expires in March 2027 with no government decision on record; budget strain and the IMF's Middle East war risk. Brakes: opposition calls for a successor; the seventh review on track. Two drivers against holding brakes, so 4.

The other facts on file (1)
  • 2027 Appropriation Bill second reading on 12 Nov 2026, debate 13 to 20 Nov (Finance Ministry timetable) [3] (13 Jul 2026)

Where it sits

SRI LANKA11. Sri Lanka has no follow-on IMF deal six months after its programme ends: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 No follow-on IMF dealElevated impact · possibleNO FOLLOW-ON IMF DEAL0250 kmat 8°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
SRI LANKA11. Sri Lanka has no follow-on IMF deal six months after its programme ends: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 No follow-onIMF dealNO FOLLOW-ON IMF DEAL0200 kmat 8°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

By 30 Sep 2027 Sri Lanka has neither a new IMF financing arrangement approved by the Executive Board nor a staff-level agreement on one (judged on that date).

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Debt and marketsThe programme anchors the post-default restructuring and budget rules [1]; without a successor, spreads and new borrowing rest on the government's own record.
  3. ReservesMultilateral financing tied to the programme's assurances [1] would lose its anchor.

Sectors 2

  • Banks and insurers
  • Sovereign debt

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Sri Lanka.

Sectors
Banks and insurers, Sovereign debt

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Successor agreed

    The government requests a new arrangement and staff agree terms.

  2. S2

    Gap year

    The EFF ends and talks drag past mid-2027.

  3. S3

    Seventh review slips

    The 2027 Budget misses programme parameters and the last tranches stall first.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A request announced before the EFF ends in March 2027
S2No request by March 2027
S3No Board completion of the seventh review by end-2026

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 12 Nov 2026 The 2027 Budget is presented to Parliament (second reading), a condition of Board completion [3] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. Mar 2027 The four-year EFF ends [2] Declared · Outside event
  3. 30 Sep 2027 The event is judged [2] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SRI LANKA · strature.net

The other side

A government that leaves the programme by choice, with reserves rebuilt to US$6.9bn [1], could present it as a sign of recovery; investors may read it the other way (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

3 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. IMF reaches staff-level agreement on the seventh review under the EFF with Sri Lanka (Press Release 26/318). IMF · 4 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Ravi K calls for post-EFF IMF program. Daily FT · 23 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Budget 2027 speech on 12 Nov. Daily FT · 13 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks