A new break in the Camisea pipeline cuts gas to Lima
The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, an unplanned stop on the Camisea gas pipeline system leads Peru's energy ministry or Osinergmin to declare a natural gas supply emergency or to ration natural gas in Lima and Callao for at least 3 days in a row.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Impact 5 to 4.
- At least 13 faults since 2004; 2018 landslide break; 2010 backup pipeline order later waived (encyclopedia) [6]
- ENFEN: normal or below-normal rain in central and southern Amazon; below-normal flows in the Apurímac and Vilcanota rivers [7]
- Minem relaunches a coastal LNG regasification plant plan for major emergencies; specialists: three to four years [4]
Why it matters
Lima's natural gas comes from Camisea, in the Cusco jungle, through one pipeline system. When it broke on 1 Mar 2026, gas-fired plants near Lima stopped, spot power prices went from US$30-40 to over US$200 a MWh, and taxis lost natural gas for about two weeks. The regulator later found the operator did not deliver enough gas from 1 to 13 Mar. There is still no backup: a coastal LNG import plant was only relaunched as a plan in September.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: one line with no backup; a record of terrain and rain faults and the regulator's finding; landslides a past cause. Brakes: repaired line under scrutiny; earlier liquids-line breaks took 3-4 days to repair; below-normal rain on the route.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: gas rationed in Lima for 3 days.
The other facts on file (4)
- 1 Mar 2026: NGL line broke at km 43, Megantoni, Cusco; gas supply emergency 1-14 Mar; Camisea gas about 40% of power; most Lima gas plants stopped; spot power from US$30-40 to over US$200/MWh; over 335,000 light NGV vehicles cut off; earlier repairs took 3-4 days [1] (2 Mar 2026)
- Line repaired; restart from 12 Mar 2026, full deliveries expected 14 Mar [2] (13 Mar 2026)
- Osinergmin: TGP did not deliver enough flow and pressure 1-13 Mar; 99% availability required; unattributed US$2.8bn loss estimate [3] (28 Apr 2026)
- Osinergmin records reviewed by OjoPúblico: 13 incidents on the liquids line from December 2004 to January 2025, mostly linked to ground movement and heavy rain [5] (9 Mar 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- A new break in the Camisea pipeline cuts gas to LimaImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Peru
How it spreads
Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, an unplanned stop on the Camisea gas pipeline system leads Peru's energy ministry or Osinergmin to declare a natural gas supply emergency or to ration natural gas in Lima and Callao for at least 3 days in a row.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- PowerGas plants near Lima stop; diesel plants run at higher cost [1].
- TransportNatural gas taxis and freight lose fuel; in March public-sector staff worked from home and schools were told to teach online from 9 to 14 Mar (low confidence) [6].
- Households and inflationLPG cylinder prices rose in Lima in March [6].
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Peru
- Sectors
- Power generation, Road transport, Industry
- Goods
- Natural gas, Lpg, Diesel
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Quiet line
No new break; the LNG plant moves to design.
- S2
A short break
A fault is fixed in 3-4 days with no rationing.
- S3
Another March
A landslide, heavy rain or another fault stops gas for a week or more.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A ministry tender for the LNG plant |
| S2 | An operator incident notice |
| S3 | A ministry emergency resolution |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Rainy season on the pipeline route begins (to April 2027) [7] Tentative · Window
- 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Peru
- A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel exports to protect its home market Shares a channel: Diesel is the backup fuel for Lima's power plants.
- El Niño forces programmed power cuts to homes in Bogotá's region or the Caribbean Shares a channel: Gas and power supply in the Andean region.
Sources
7 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Se rompió el ducto de Camisea: la electricidad se dispara a USD200 MWh y casi todas las plantas a gas en Lima están detenidas. Infobae · 2 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- TGP: el ducto de Camisea fue reparado y comenzó el restablecimiento progresivo del transporte de gas hacia la costa. Forbes Perú · 13 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Osinergmin afirma que TGP incumplió contrato al no suministrar suficiente flujo de gas natural tras rotura del ducto de Camisea. La República · 28 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Minem relanza proyecto para construir una planta de regasificación en la costa. El Comercio · 15 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Una cadena de 13 fallas en TGP antecedió a la fuga y deflagración en el ducto de Camisea que dejó al Perú sin GNV. Infobae · 9 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Crisis energética de Perú de 2026. Wikipedia (Spanish) · 28 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- El Niño Costero se extendería hasta el otoño de 2027, según el último reporte del Enfen. Infobae · 17 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: Impact 5 to 4 · All risks