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World risk · Energy and resources

Ecuador orders scheduled national power cuts

The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Ecuador's energy ministry or grid operator (CENACE) orders scheduled power cuts to homes in most provinces, of at least 2 hours a day, on any day.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration4
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. CENACE: imports 59 MWh on 29 Oct and 63 MWh on 1 Nov 2026; no rationing shown [4]
  2. Mazar at 2,122.39 m on 22 Oct 2026, about 7 m above the 2,115 m safe minimum (Celec Sur) [2]
  3. Colombia resumed sales in August at 8.6 GWh a day, stopped from September; Noboa said on 16 Oct 2026 that sales resumed [3]
  4. Mazar at 2,124.9 m on 12 Oct 2026, down more than 21 m in about six weeks; engineer Pablo Arias, citing CENACE, put the deficit at 1,300-1,800 MW and expected cuts from late October; 16 generators add 30 MW, aiming at 60 MW; Colombia stopped about 450 MW (about 10%) on 22 Jan 2026 [1]

Why it matters

Ecuador's Mazar reservoir fell more than 21 m in about six weeks to 12 Oct 2026, and an engineer citing the grid operator put the power deficit at 1,300-1,800 MW. Rain lifted it to 2,122.39 m by 22 Oct, about 7 m above its safe minimum. No cuts were in force on 1 Nov, but Ecuador cut power for up to 14 hours a day in late 2024.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: engineer Pablo Arias expected cuts (12 Oct 2026); Mazar about 7 m above its minimum. Brakes: added generators; Colombia's stated resumption (Noboa, 16 Oct); no cuts on 1 Nov per CENACE; late-October rain.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: 2 hours a day in most provinces.

The other facts on file (2)
  • 28 Oct 2024: cuts of 10-14 hours a day by zone; worst drought in 60 years; hydro plants cover about 70% of demand [5] (28 Oct 2024)
  • Local elections moved forward to 29 Nov 2026 [6] (27 Mar 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Ecuador orders scheduled national power cuts. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Ecuador orders scheduled national power cutsImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated. · Ecuador
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · ECUADOR · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Ecuador's energy ministry or grid operator (CENACE) orders scheduled power cuts to homes in most provinces, of at least 2 hours a day, on any day.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Households and firmsDaily cuts across most provinces, as in 2024 [5].
  3. PoliticsLocal elections fall on 29 Nov 2026 [6].
  4. ColombiaPressure on Colombia to export power in its own dry season [3].

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Ecuador, Colombia
Sectors
Energy and pipelines

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Rain rescues

    Mazar recovers and imports cover the gap.

  2. S2

    Night cuts

    Short scheduled cuts, as Arias proposed (22:00-04:00).

  3. S3

    2024 again

    Long daily cuts.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Mazar above 2,130 m in Celec data
S2A CENACE rationing table
S3Mazar at its 2,115 m minimum

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 29 Nov 2026 Local elections [6] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [4] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · ECUADOR · strature.net

The other side

In 2024 the government turned to imported thermal turbines [5]; a wet season would refill Mazar quickly (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Expertos advierten que 30 MW recuperados no evitan el riesgo de apagones en Ecuador. Teleamazonas · 12 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Lluvias de ultimas horas salvan Mazar y alejan a Ecuador de apagones (Celec Sur data). Extra · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. Colombia reanuda envio de energia a Ecuador, confirma Noboa. Teleamazonas · 16 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Informacion operativa. CENACE · 1 Nov 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. Ecuador mantendra apagones electricos de hasta 14 horas al dia por la sequia. NTN24 · 28 Oct 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  6. CNE fija para el 29 de noviembre de 2026 las Elecciones Seccionales. El Comercio (Ecuador) · 27 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks