Erosion or a rupture stops Ecuador's main crude pipeline for a week or more
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, either of Ecuador's two crude export pipelines (the state SOTE line or the parallel heavy-crude line) stops pumping for 7 or more days in a row because of erosion, a landslide or a rupture.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
Why it matters
Coca River erosion has interrupted Ecuador's state crude pipeline (SOTE) at least 13 times since 2020; in July 2025 it stopped for almost 23 days, and the parallel heavy-crude line stopped too. A US$19m dike was swept away in May 2026; no permanent re-route has started.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: erosion front 3.4-3.6 km from the hydro intake; permanent re-route not started. Brakes: ten bypasses built; OCP carried part of the load in October 2026, though it also stopped in July 2025. The October 2026 fire does not count.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case: a 7-day stop. Worse case: both lines stop, as in July 2025.
The other facts on file (4)
- At least 13 SOTE interruptions 2020-2025, about 23.5 million barrels not moved, about US$1,124m revenue lost; July 2025 stop almost 23 days, about US$372.2m [1] (19 Jun 2026)
- US$19m dike destroyed about 21 May 2026, 38 days after opening; tenth bypass finished 28 May 2026; ten bypasses cost US$25.9m [1] (19 Jun 2026)
- Erosion front 3.6 km (Celec) or 3.4 km (minister) from the Coca Codo Sinclair intake; permanent re-route about US$200m, at least three years, not started [1] (19 Jun 2026)
- SOTE halted 2 Jul 2025 citing advancing erosion; restarted 25 Jul after a 988 m bypass; OCP also stopped as a precaution [5] (26 Jul 2025)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Erosion or a rupture stops Ecuador's main crude pipeline for a week or moreImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated. · Ecuador
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, either of Ecuador's two crude export pipelines (the state SOTE line or the parallel heavy-crude line) stops pumping for 7 or more days in a row because of erosion, a landslide or a rupture.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Ecuador, United States
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- Crude oil
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Bypasses hold
Short stops only.
- S2
Another long stop
A new bypass is needed and the SOTE stops for weeks, as in July 2025.
- S3
Re-route begins
A contract for the permanent route is signed.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Petroecuador reports no new bypass in the rains |
| S2 | An erosion alert from Celec's river commission |
| S3 | A tender notice |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0177: 40% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
Where the card uses it F-0177 resolves (Venezuelan heavy crude in US refineries). Strature forecast F-0177: 40% (1 Oct 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Mar 2027 Rainy season raises erosion risk (March to August, Strature's view) [1] Tentative · Window
- 30 Sep 2027 F-0177 resolves (Venezuelan heavy crude in US refineries). Strature forecast F-0177: 40% (1 Oct 2026) [4] Declared · Strature date
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [4] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
The OCP took part of the SOTE's crude during the October stop [2], so the two lines back each other up (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- Ecuador
- United States
- Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from Canada Shares a channel: Both move heavy crude into the same US refineries (F-0177's channel). Strature forecast F-0177: 40% (1 Oct 2026).
- Ecuador orders scheduled national power cuts Shares a channel: The erosion front is 3.4-3.6 km from the Coca Codo Sinclair intake.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Erosion regresiva del rio Coca: lo que Ecuador ha dejado de percibir por el transporte petrolero. Primicias · 19 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Petroecuador reactiva el SOTE tras incendio en una estacion de bombeo de Napo. El Comercio (Ecuador) · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- U.S. Imports from Ecuador of Crude Oil, monthly (Petroleum Supply Monthly). US Energy Information Administration · 30 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- SOTE volvio a operar tras 23 dias paralizado por obras (EFE). Vistazo · 26 Jul 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Strature forecast register, F-0177 (brief C-006). Strature · 1 Oct 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks