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World risk · Finance and markets

Macao's economy shrinks year on year in a quarter

The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, Macao's Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) publishes a first estimate showing a real year-on-year fall in GDP for any quarter from Q4 2026 to Q3 2027.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. October 2026 gross gaming revenue MOP21.68bn, down 10% year on year, the fifth monthly fall in a row [5]
  2. Q3 2026 GDP MOP106.06bn, up 0.1% year on year in real terms (DSEC preliminary); gaming services exports -4.8%, other tourism services exports +6.6%, gross fixed capital formation +17.2% [1]
  3. Macau Economic Association projected a 2% fall in Q3 2026 GDP (range -0.8% to -2.7%) [4]
  4. Gaming taxes were 84.1% of government revenue in January-September 2026 [6]

Why it matters

Macao's real GDP grew 0.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, after 0.3% in the second. The last fall came in early 2025. Gaming exports are shrinking while tourism and building grow. The risk is that one of the next four quarters prints a fall.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: growth near zero in Q3 2026; gaming services exports falling; gaming revenue down year on year for five months to October. Brakes: other tourism exports and investment growing; the only named forecaster of a fall missed for Q3.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case: a small fall.

The other facts on file (2)
  • Q2 2026 GDP MOP102.35bn, up 0.3% in real terms; first half up 3.7% [2] (21 Aug 2026)
  • Q1 2025 real GDP down 1.3% year on year, to MOP99.78bn (preliminary) [3] (2 May 2025)

Where it sits

11. Macao's economy shrinks year on year in a quarter: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Macao's economy shrinksyear on year in a quarterLow impact · possibleMACAO ECONOMY SHRINKS A QUARTER0250 kmat 22°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. Macao's economy shrinks year on year in a quarter: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Macao economyshrinks a quarterMACAO ECONOMY SHRINKS A QUARTER0200 kmat 22°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, Macao's Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) publishes a first estimate showing a real year-on-year fall in GDP for any quarter from Q4 2026 to Q3 2027.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Public financesGaming taxes carry the budget, so a gaming-led fall cuts revenue [6].
  3. Trade in servicesGaming services exports are already falling [1][5].

Sectors 2

  • Gaming tourism
  • Banks and insurers

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Macau, China, Hong Kong.

Sectors
Gaming tourism, Construction, Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Tourism carries it

    Visitors and investment keep growth positive.

  2. S2

    Flat line

    Growth hovers near zero without a fall.

  3. S3

    A quarter shrinks

    Gaming exports fall faster than tourism grows.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Q4 2026 first estimate above zero
S2Gaming revenue flat year on year by March 2027
S3Monthly gaming revenue down year on year through January 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. May 2027 First estimate of Q1 2027 GDP (Q1 2025 came on 2 May) [3] Tentative · Strature date
  2. Oct 2027 First estimate of Q3 2027 GDP (Q3 2026 came on 30 Oct) [1] Tentative · Strature date
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · MACAU · strature.net

The other side

Investment rose 17.2% and other tourism exports 6.6% in Q3 [1]. The only named forecaster of a fall missed [4].

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. 2026年首三季本地生產總值初步數值. Macao SAR Government Portal (DSEC) · 30 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  2. Detailed results of gross domestic product for the first half of 2026. Macao Government Information Bureau (DSEC) · 21 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  3. Preliminary figures for Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter of 2025. Macao Government Information Bureau (DSEC) · 2 May 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  4. Macau GDP projected to shrink by 2% as casino revenue weakens. Focus Gaming News · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  5. Macau GGR falls 10% year-on-year in October. Focus Gaming News · 2 Nov 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  6. Macau maintains gaming revenue forecast as gaming tax climbs 5.6% in year to date. Focus Gaming News · 12 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026

Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks