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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

A typhoon shuts every Macao casino for 24 hours or more

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027 the government orders all Macao casinos closed for 24 hours or more in a row because of a typhoon (DICJ notice).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
2Low steady this month
Breadth3
Depth1
Duration1
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Gaming taxes were 84.1% of government revenue in January-September 2026 (Financial Services Bureau, as reported) [3]
  2. September 2026 GGR MOP18.06bn, the year's lowest month [2]

Why it matters

Typhoon Ragasa closed every casino in Macao for 33 hours in September 2025, as long as Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018. With monthly takings near MOP18bn, a day's closure costs the city's main industry and its budget real money, and the 2027 typhoon season falls inside the window.

Why Likelihood 3 No second driver, so 3.

The other facts on file (3)
  • DICJ (22 Sep 2025): the government decided to close all casinos upon issuing a No. 8 typhoon signal; casinos shut 5 p.m. 23 Sep to 2 a.m. 25 Sep 2025, 33 hours [1] (26 Sep 2025)
  • Ragasa's was the fifth complete citywide casino shutdown and the third ordered for a typhoon [1] (26 Sep 2025)
  • Mangkhut (2018) closed casinos for 33 hours at a reported cost of up to US$186m; Saola (2023) for nine hours [1] (26 Sep 2025)

Where it sits

11. A typhoon shuts every Macao casino for 24 hours or more: Low impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 A typhoon shuts everyMacao casino for 24 hoursor moreLow impact · unlikelyTYPHOON SHUTS MACAO CASINOS0250 kmat 22°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. A typhoon shuts every Macao casino for 24 hours or more: Low impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Typhoon shutsMacao casinosTYPHOON SHUTS MACAO CASINOS0200 kmat 22°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027 the government orders all Macao casinos closed for 24 hours or more in a row because of a typhoon (DICJ notice).

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Casino takingsA day or more of lost gaming revenue in the month it falls [1][2].
  3. Public financeGaming taxes were 84.1% of government revenue in January-September 2026 [3], so a closure cuts revenue directly.

Sectors 2

  • Tourism
  • Public finance

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Macau.

Sectors
Tourism, Public finance

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Near misses

    Typhoons pass with signals below No. 8, or brief closures.

  2. S2

    One long closure

    A direct hit closes casinos for a day or more.

  3. S3

    Rule change

    The government keeps casinos open under No. 8 with staff safeguards.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A Signal No. 8 lowered within hours
S2A Signal No. 8 forecast to hold overnight in the 2027 season
S3A DICJ statement changing the closure decision

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · MACAU · strature.net

The other side

Short closures are usually followed by pent-up visits, so part of the lost takings returns in the following days (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

3 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Ragasa sees Macau casinos close for 33 hours. Macau Daily Times · 26 Sep 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Macau GGR hits 2026 low in September. Focus Gaming News · 1 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Macau maintains gaming revenue forecast as gaming tax climbs 5.6% in year to date. Focus Gaming News · 12 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks