Macao's casino takings fall year on year for a full quarter
The test Macao's gross gaming revenue (DICJ) for any calendar quarter from Q4 2026 to Q3 2027 is below the same quarter a year earlier.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Likelihood 7 to 6; Likelihood trend up to flat.
- October 2026 GGR MOP21.68bn, down 10% year on year, fifth consecutive monthly fall (DICJ); ten-month total MOP208.79bn, up 1.6% [5]
- Jefferies (13 Oct 2026): October down 7%, continued weakness in November, December recovery; 2026 at MOP252bn, up 1.7% [2]
- The Chief Executive kept the government's 2026 GGR forecast at MOP236bn, to be reviewed after October [2]
- Casino taxes MOP74.56bn in January-September 2026; gaming taxes 84.1% of government revenue (Financial Services Bureau, as reported) [6]
- October 2025 GGR was MOP24.08bn [4]
Why it matters
Gaming taxes made up 84.1% of Macao's government revenue in the first nine months of 2026. Gross gaming revenue fell year on year for a fifth month in a row in October 2026, by 10% to MOP21.68bn, which leaves the fourth quarter well behind last year's after its first month. An investment bank expects weakness to continue into November.
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: five monthly falls in a row; October left Q4 about MOP2.4bn behind; Jefferies forecasts November weakness. Brakes: a forecast December recovery. October fell even with the Golden Week holiday in it.
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Macao's gross gaming revenue (DICJ) for any calendar quarter from Q4 2026 to Q3 2027 is below the same quarter a year earlier.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Public financeGaming taxes are the main source of government revenue [6]; a falling quarter narrows the margin over the MOP236bn forecast [2].
- Operators and jobsThe six concessionaires and their staff, suppliers and hotels.
- Mainland and Hong KongVisitor spending from Guangdong and Hong Kong drives the takings.
Sectors 2
- Tourism
- Public finance
Countries 1
- Macau primary
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Late rescue
November and December beat last year by enough to offset October and Q4 2026 stays level.
- S2
Soft quarter
October's fall carries the quarter: Q4 2026 comes in below Q4 2025.
- S3
Longer slide
Mainland spending stays weak into 2027.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | November 2026 GGR above November 2025 |
| S2 | November 2026 GGR down on November 2025, as forecast |
| S3 | Q1 2027 months below Q1 2026 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Dec 2026 DICJ publishes November 2026 GGR [5] Tentative · Outside event
- Jan 2027 DICJ publishes December 2026 GGR, completing Q4 [5] Tentative · Outside event
- 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [2] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
Even a soft fourth quarter leaves 2026 close to the government's MOP236bn forecast, with ten-month takings of MOP208.79bn [5]; non-gaming spending by the concessionaires is meant to make the economy less dependent on one number (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Macau
- A typhoon shuts every Macao casino for 24 hours or more Shares a channel: A typhoon closure cuts the takings of the quarter it falls in.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Macau GGR hits 2026 low in September. Focus Gaming News · 1 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Jefferies sees Macau GGR weakness extending into November. Focus Gaming News · 14 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Macau September GGR falls 1.2% to $2.24B, lowest monthly total of 2026. AGB · 1 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Macau Losing Streak Hits Four Months as September Casino Revenue Drops 1.2% to $2.23B. Casino.org · 1 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Macau GGR falls 10% year-on-year in October. Focus Gaming News · 2 Nov 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Macau maintains gaming revenue forecast as gaming tax climbs 5.6% in year to date. Focus Gaming News · 12 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: Likelihood 7 to 6; Likelihood trend up to flat · All risks