Libya splits again into two rival central bank governors
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, for at least 14 days, two people each claim the Central Bank of Libya governorship, each backed by a rival authority, on two sources.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↑ Up since 22 Oct 2026: the House vote on the governor and the armed entry into the bank [1]
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Issa appointed in 2024 by joint agreement of the House and the High Council of State; offered to resign in August 2026; on 22 Oct the House approved his resignation and backed Fowzi Abukhzam as interim; militants entered the bank; the Council's first deputy rejected the House's unilateral measures; the Council's head asked Abukhzam to act as interim [1]
- US$839m of US$1.2bn the NOC said it transferred unaccounted for; about 90% of state income passes through the bank; first unified budget in 13 years in April 2026 [1]
Why it matters
The 2024 deal that put Naji Issa at the head of the Central Bank of Libya unravelled on 22 Oct 2026: the eastern House accepted his resignation and backed an interim, militants forced their way into the bank, and a deputy head of the western High Council of State rejected the move. The Council's own head backed the same interim, which holds for now. The bank handles about 90% of state income.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the armed entry, the Council deputy's rejection, the missing oil money. Brake: the House and the Council's head back the same interim; no source reports Issa contesting his exit. Two drivers with the brake holding give 4 with or without the precedent.
The other facts on file (6)
- In August 2024 the Presidential Council removed governor al-Kabir by decree and named a successor; the east-based parliament and the High Council of State called the removal illegitimate (AP) [5] (20 Aug 2024)
- On 12 Sep 2024 al-Kabir said he hoped to be reinstated; a board named by the Presidential Council's head ran the bank (Reuters) [6] (12 Sep 2024)
- Eastern authorities shut oilfields from 26 Aug 2024; force majeure lifted as of 3 Oct 2024 after rival authorities agreed to appoint Naji Issa (Reuters) [7] (4 Oct 2024)
- Crude output 1,438,560 b/d (1,487,723 with condensate), the highest since 2013 [2] (21 Jun 2026)
- Greece imported 3,914 kt of Libyan crude in 2024 (estimate) [3] (2024)
- Turkey imported 1.57 Mt of Libyan crude in 2025 [4] (2025)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Libya splits again into two rival central bank governorsImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Libya
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, for at least 14 days, two people each claim the Central Bank of Libya governorship, each backed by a rival authority, on two sources.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Joint appointment
House and Council agree a permanent governor.
- S2
Contested interim
Issa or a western nominee contests the interim's role.
- S3
Two banks again
Rival authorities name rival governors for 14 days or more.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A joint east-west vote on a nominee |
| S2 | The House ratification session |
| S3 | A second armed entry or a payments freeze |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- Italy
- Greece
- Turkey
- Blockades or force majeure push Libya's crude output under 1.0 mb/d for 14 days Drives: The 2024 governor split led to an oil shutdown; the fight reopened on 22 Oct 2026.
- A Greek-Turkish standoff at sea south or east of Crete Shares a channel: Libya's east-west politics and its Turkey memorandum.
Sources
7 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- The compromise that held Libya's central bank together unravels as Naji Issa tenders his resignation. Enterprise MENA+ · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Libyan oil production nears 1.5 million barrels a day. National Oil Corporation (Libya) · 21 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country (nrg_ti_oil). Eurostat · 9 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Petroleum Market Development Report 2025. EPDK (Energy Market Regulatory Authority, Türkiye) · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Libya's powerful central bank governor sacked. Africanews (with AP) · 20 Aug 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Libya still cut off from foreign banks: ousted central banker. LBCI (Reuters) · 12 Sep 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Libyan oil fields open as central bank dispute resolved. Daily Sabah (Reuters) · 4 Oct 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks