Blockades or force majeure push Libya's crude output under 1.0 mb/d for 14 days
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Libya's crude output stays below 1.0 mb/d for at least 14 days in a row, by National Oil Corporation data or two sources.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- House accepted the governor's resignation and backed an interim on 22 Oct 2026; militants entered the bank; US$839m of US$1.2bn unaccounted for; first unified budget in 13 years in April 2026 [2]
Why it matters
Libya pumped 1.44 mb/d of crude in June 2026, its most since 2013. In 2024 a fight over the central bank led eastern authorities to shut fields for over five weeks. That fight is open again; record output and a unified budget hold it back.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the reopened central bank fight and the October revenue dispute. Brakes: the April 2026 unified budget, record output. Two drivers with brakes holding.
The other facts on file (7)
- Crude output 1,438,560 b/d (1,487,723 with condensate), highest since 2013; target 1.5 mb/d before end-2026 [1] (21 Jun 2026)
- Eastern authorities closed oilfields and halted most exports on 26 Aug 2024 over the central bank governor; the NOC lifted force majeure as of 3 Oct 2024 (Reuters) [7] (4 Oct 2024)
- The NOC said output fell to about 590,000 b/d on 28 Aug 2024 [8] (11 Sep 2024)
- Greece imported 3,914 kt of Libyan crude in 2024 (estimate) [3] (2024)
- Greek crude imports 11,820 kt in Jan-Jun 2026 vs 8,727 kt in Jan-Jun 2025 [4] (Jun 2026)
- Turkey imported 1.57 Mt of Libyan crude in 2025 [5] (2025)
- Brent reached more than US$116 on 30 Mar 2026 [6] (30 Mar 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Blockades or force majeure push Libya's crude output under 1.0 mb/d for 14 daysImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Libya
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Libya's crude output stays below 1.0 mb/d for at least 14 days in a row, by National Oil Corporation data or two sources.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Output holds
The bank dispute settles and output stays above 1.3 mb/d.
- S2
Short blockade
A field or port closes for days.
- S3
2024 repeat
Rival authorities shut fields for weeks over the bank.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A joint appointment of a central bank governor |
| S2 | A force majeure notice from the NOC |
| S3 | Rival governors named |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Dec 2026 NOC target of 1.5 mb/d before the end of 2026 [1] Tentative · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- Italy
- Greece
- Spain
- France
- Germany
- Turkey
- Libya splits again into two rival central bank governors Driven by: A governor fight led to the 2024 shutdown; the fight reopened on 22 Oct 2026.
- IEA members agree a second emergency oil stock release Shares a channel: A Libyan outage would draw on depleted world stocks.
- A Greek-Turkish standoff at sea south or east of Crete Shares a channel: Libya's east-west politics and its Turkey memorandum.
Sources
8 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Libyan oil production nears 1.5 million barrels a day. National Oil Corporation (Libya) · 21 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- The compromise that held Libya's central bank together unravels as Naji Issa tenders his resignation. Enterprise MENA+ · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country (nrg_ti_oil). Eurostat · 9 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (nrg_ti_oilm). Eurostat · 30 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Petroleum Market Development Report 2025. EPDK (Energy Market Regulatory Authority, Türkiye) · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Can Algeria's gas save the old continent from the Strait of Hormuz?. Euronews · 31 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Libyan oil fields open as central bank dispute resolved. Daily Sabah (Reuters) · 4 Oct 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Libya oil exports plunge as NOC cancels cargoes due to crisis. The New Arab · 11 Sep 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review; scores unchanged · All risks