A cholera outbreak in Sudan passes 10,000 cases
The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027 WHO, OCHA or Sudan's federal health ministry reports 10,000 or more cumulative suspected cholera cases in one outbreak (the one that began in May 2026 in West Kordofan, or a new one).
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Sudan's health ministry calls the cholera outbreak that began in May 2026 in Kordofan the country's third in three years. The previous large wave passed 120,000 cases. War, famine and the rainy season keep the conditions for another large wave in place.
Why Likelihood 5 Once in the last 36 months (the 2024-26 outbreak), so not below 3. Pushes: three outbreaks in three years; famine and displacement; the 2027 rainy season inside the window.
The other facts on file (5)
- Sudan's federal health ministry counted 1,547 cholera cases in West and North Kordofan as the rainy season began, and called it the country's third outbreak in three years; the previous wave began in July 2025 and was contained in March 2026 [2] (16 Jul 2026)
- OCHA: more than 2,000 suspected cholera cases and 170 deaths in Sudan since May 2026, mainly in North, West and South Kordofan, plus Darfur and Blue Nile [1] (28 Jul 2026)
- The cholera outbreak declared in Sudan on 12 Aug 2024 reached 120,496 cases and 3,368 deaths by October 2025 (federal health ministry) [3] (16 Oct 2025)
- The UN counted more than 100,000 cholera cases in Sudan in the year to 1 Sep 2025 [4] (1 Sep 2025)
- WHO counted about 2,900 cholera cases and 247 deaths in six Sudanese states in the 2026 outbreak; vaccination campaigns targeted 675,315 people in West Kordofan and at least 95,000 in Tawila, North Darfur [5] (10 Sep 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027 WHO, OCHA or Sudan's federal health ministry reports 10,000 or more cumulative suspected cholera cases in one outbreak (the one that began in May 2026 in West Kordofan, or a new one).
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- PeopleMore deaths among the displaced and hungry, where cholera spreads fastest [3][4].
- AidTreatment centres, vaccine and water supplies compete with famine relief for limited access [1][4].
- NeighboursCases can cross into Chad and South Sudan with refugees and returnees.
Countries 1
- Sudan primary
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Sudan, Chad, South Sudan.
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Contained
Vaccination and water work keep the 2026 outbreak in the low thousands.
- S2
Rainy-season wave
The 2027 rains spread cholera through camps and the count passes 10,000 cases.
- S3
Siege-driven wave
Fighting cuts water and health care in a besieged city and cases surge.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | An OCHA update reporting the outbreak contained |
| S2 | A ministry count above 5,000 in mid-2027 |
| S3 | OCHA reporting cholera in a besieged locality |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jul 2027 Rainy season under way, the 2026 outbreak's growth period [2] Tentative · Window
Connected in Strature
- Sudan
- Famine is confirmed in a new part of Sudan Driven by: Famine and displacement are where cholera spreads fastest.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Cholera outbreak in Sudan kills 170 since May, UN says. Anadolu Agency · 28 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Sudan cholera cases in Kordofan rise to 1,547 as rainy season begins. EMPHNET EpiNews · 16 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- UN warns cholera outbreak in Sudan worsening as fighting continues. Africanews · 16 Oct 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Sudan's cholera outbreak surpasses 100,000 cases amid war and famine. Eastleigh Voice · 1 Sep 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Sudan: 16 Cholera Deaths Reported in West Kordofan, Darfur Vaccination Drive Begins. Radio Dabanga (AllAfrica) · 10 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks