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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict

Famine is confirmed in a new part of Sudan

The test By 3 Nov 2027 the IPC Famine Review Committee classifies or confirms famine (Phase 5) in at least one area of Sudan that was not so classified on 3 Nov 2026.

Not under way · Confidence: high · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated rising this month

Likelihood ↑ 12 Oct 2026: the IPC alert on drought and war in Darfur and Kordofan raised the case for a new famine classification [1].

Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth3
Duration6
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. IPC Famine Review Committee: a humanitarian catastrophe of historic proportions; drought over more than half of Sudan; 64% of North Darfur cropland with poor growth; child acute malnutrition of 38% and 30.8% in two Eastern Jebel Marra camps; survey data too thin for a full analysis [1]
  2. More than 300,000 people displaced in Greater Kordofan since October 2025 [1]
  3. NOAA kept a strong-to-very-strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 [4]
  4. FAO: 14 areas in North Darfur, South Darfur and South Kordofan at risk of famine under a worst-case lean-season scenario; about 135,000 people projected in IPC Phase 5 for February-May 2026; below-average 2026 rains linked to El Niño [5]

Why it matters

The IPC's Famine Review Committee found famine in El Fasher and Kadugli in November 2025. In February 2026 child malnutrition passed famine thresholds in two more North Darfur localities, and on 12 Oct 2026 the committee warned of a rapidly worsening situation across Darfur and Kordofan as war meets drought. Access and missing survey data stand between these alerts and a new classification.

Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: an official alert leaning towards the event; recurrence; drought. Brakes: access and survey data, which held the October alert short of a classification. Leaning towards it.

The other facts on file (2)
  • IPC alert: child malnutrition of 52.9% in Um Baru and about 34% in Kernoi, North Darfur; not a formal famine classification [2] (5 Feb 2026)
  • Famine Review Committee found famine in El Fasher and Kadugli [3] (3 Nov 2025)

Where it sits

SUDANETHIOPIAERITREA11. Famine is confirmed in a new part of Sudan: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Famine is confirmedin a new part of SudanElevated impact · possibleNEW FAMINE AREA IN SUDAN0500 kmat 15°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
SUDANETHIOPIA11. Famine is confirmed in a new part of Sudan: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 New famine areain SudanNEW FAMINE AREA IN SUDAN0500 kmat 15°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

By 3 Nov 2027 the IPC Famine Review Committee classifies or confirms famine (Phase 5) in at least one area of Sudan that was not so classified on 3 Nov 2026.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. AidA famine finding steers donor money to the named area (Strature's view).
  3. DisplacementHunger drives more people into Chad, South Sudan and Egypt (Strature's view).

Sectors 1

  • Agriculture and food

Countries 4

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Sudan, Chad, South Sudan, Egypt.

Sectors
Agriculture and food

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Access improves

    Aid arrives; no new area is classified.

  2. S2

    New finding

    Surveys confirm famine in a new locality.

  3. S3

    Blind spot

    Famine spreads unconfirmed.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Survey teams reach Eastern Jebel Marra by early 2027
S2An IPC projection update in early 2027
S3Another alert citing missing data

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. May 2027 Lean season before the 2027 harvest (May-September) [5] Tentative · Window
  2. 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SUDAN · strature.net

The other side

A truce that opens routes would let aid reach areas now cut off (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Sudan: Drought and War Push Darfur and Kordofan Towards Famine. UN News (via AllAfrica) · 12 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Famine thresholds surpassed in Um Baru and Kernoi (IPC alert). UN News · 5 Feb 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Famine declared in Sudan as war, economic collapse push millions to the brink. The Eastleigh Voice · 3 Nov 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (ENSO diagnostic discussion). NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. GIEWS country brief: Sudan. FAO · 24 Sep 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks