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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

Drug-gang violence halts work at the port of Antwerp for a day

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, a terminal or a customs inspection site in the port of Antwerp-Bruges stops work for 24 hours or more because of violence or threats linked to drug crime, including a stoppage by workers in protest at such violence.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
2Low steady this month
Breadth2
Depth1
Duration1
Hard to substitute2
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

Antwerp remains Europe's main cocaine gateway with Rotterdam: Belgian customs intercepted about 55 tonnes there in 2025, down from a record 121 tonnes in 2023. Gangs have tried to take back seized cargo by force and threatened port workers, and more than 300 port employees were suspended in January 2026 after new security screening. No case of a terminal stopping work for a day because of the violence was found; this risk is that one happens.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: armed attempts on customs sites (2023); a group suspected of threatening and kidnapping port workers (searches Sep 2025); Europol's record of rising violence; screening suspensions and concern about disruption.

Why Impact 2 Threshold case: one terminal stops for a day.

The other facts on file (9)
  • About 55 tonnes of cocaine intercepted at the port of Antwerp in 2025 (new customs figures), against a record 121 tonnes in 2023; scope of either figure not stated [1] (21 Jan 2026)
  • 16,678 people screened, most at Antwerp-Bruges; about 1.9% (roughly 320) failed, most suspended; concern that strict checks could disrupt operations [2] (16 Jan 2026)
  • More than 300 Antwerp port employees suspended after security checks [3] (17 Jan 2026)
  • Customs seized more than 141 kg of cocaine in two refrigerated containers on 11 Jan 2026 [4] (12 Jan 2026)
  • Nov 2023: two dockworkers gagged and threatened with knives at a customs site; mid-Oct 2023: armed gang stopped from taking back a 10-tonne seizure; customs union president did not rule out a walk-out [5] (6 Nov 2023)
  • Europol: more than 70% of cocaine entering Europe passes through Antwerp and Rotterdam; rising violence [6] (3 Jul 2024)
  • Maritime security law for six ports and 198 port facilities took effect on 3 Jul 2023 [7] (3 Jul 2023)
  • Federal cabinet approved Justice Minister Verlinden's plan for an Antwerp port prosecution service; new funding from 2027; powers not yet set [10] (3 Apr 2026)
  • Searches at 16 addresses in north Antwerp; 13 suspects picked up, four held; group suspected of drug dealing, threatening port workers, kidnappings and firebomb attacks in recent months; no conviction reported [11] (1 Oct 2025)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Drug-gang violence halts work at the port of Antwerp for a day. Impact 2 of 10, Low. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Drug-gang violence halts work at the port of Antwerp for a dayImpact 2 of 10, Low. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Belgium
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 25 Oct 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · BELGIUM · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, a terminal or a customs inspection site in the port of Antwerp-Bruges stops work for 24 hours or more because of violence or threats linked to drug crime, including a stoppage by workers in protest at such violence.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Port operationsA one-day stop delays ships and boxes; calls shift to other terminals or Rotterdam (Strature's view).
  3. RulesPressure for more armed guards, screening and port powers.
  4. Trade complianceMore checks on reefer cargo from Latin America (Strature's view).

Sectors 2

  • Ports and logistics
  • Agriculture and food

Who is exposed

Countries
Belgium, Netherlands
Sectors
Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    A strike after an attack

    An armed raid on a customs site leads staff to stop work for a day.

  2. S2

    Pressure moves on

    Seizures keep falling as joint operations with Latin American partners stop more cocaine before it reaches Europe.

  3. S3

    Screening dispute

    Dockworker screening causes a dispute that slows work, outside this event.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1An attack on customs or terminal staff reported by the prosecutor
S22026 customs figures below 55 tonnes, expected January 2027
S3A union notice over screening

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Jan 2027 Customs cocaine figures for 2026, expected in January as in the last two years [1] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 25 Oct 2027 Scored window ends Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · BELGIUM · strature.net

The other side

Lower seizures and staff screening suggest the port is harder to use for smuggling. Rotterdam and other North Sea terminals gain if Antwerp terminals pause (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

9 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Meer coke onderschept in de haven van Antwerpen dan in alle Amerikaanse havens samen?. VRT NWS · 21 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. Hundreds of Antwerp port employees suspended after drug screening. VRT NWS · 16 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. 300 employees at Antwerp port suspended after drug security checks. Ports Europe · 17 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. Belgian customs seize over 140 kilos of cocaine at Port of Antwerp. The Brussels Times · 12 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. We need to burn cocaine faster: Antwerp Port workers facing revenge violence by drug gangs. The Brussels Times · 6 Nov 2023 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  6. Antwerp remains major gateway to cocaine entering Europe. The Brussels Times (Belga, citing Europol) · 3 Jul 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Belgian ports now better protected against organised crime with new law. The Brussels Times · 3 Jul 2023 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. Minister Verlinden wil havenparket oprichten in strijd tegen drugscriminaliteit. VRT NWS · 3 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. Vier verdachten aangehouden voor drugshandel en ontvoering havenarbeiders in Antwerpen. VRT NWS · 1 Oct 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks