World risk · Finance and markets

SACU ministers agree a new revenue-sharing formula that cuts the smaller members' shares

The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the SACU Council of Ministers adopts a revised revenue-sharing formula that lowers the share of Eswatini, Lesotho, Botswana or Namibia.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page

Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood

2Low steady this month

Impact

5Elevated steady this month

Breadth5

Depth2

Duration7

Hard to substitute6

Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

South Africa will pay R78.4bn to Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia through the Southern African Customs Union in 2026/27, about half of the common revenue pool. An opposition MP asked in 2026 whether the Treasury had modelled alternatives to the sharing formula; it said on 28 Aug 2026 that it had not. For Eswatini, whose public debt the IMF expects to reach 50% of GDP by end-FY26/27, a cut would land on stretched public finances.

Why Likelihood 2 Push: an MP's question on alternatives to the formula. Brake: the Treasury said on 28 Aug 2026 it has done no modelling of alternatives. No live official driver is cited: a tail case, 2.

Why Impact 5 Threshold case a smaller share for at least one of the four.

The other facts on file (4)

Eswatini public debt 40% of GDP end-FY24/25, 44.7% end-FY25/26, expected 50% end-FY26/27; deficit 6.1% of GDP FY25/26; reserves 2.5 months of imports end-2025; higher SACU revenues named in the FY26/27 budget; no mention of a formula review; debt to peak above 52% and fall to about 45% by end-FY31/32 [1] (5 Aug 2026)
South Africa's 2026/27 SACU payments to Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia R78.4bn, about 50% of the common revenue pool [2] (19 Jun 2026)
Treasury has not conducted any modelling of alternatives to the SACU Revenue Sharing Formula (reply to J H P Britz, DA) [3] (28 Aug 2026)
Treasury: SACU transfers are published annually in the MTBPS and the Budget Review [3] (28 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Low 1–3
Elevated 4–6
High 7–8
Severe 9–10

Bigger circle: higher Impact
Solid ring: under way
Red ring: highest Impact on this map
Where it starts
Who it reaches

The risk on this map

SACU ministers agree a new revenue-sharing formula that cuts the smaller members' sharesImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 2 of 10, Low. · Swaziland

SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.

Exhibit R-1 · WORLD · strature.net

How it spreads

Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the SACU Council of Ministers adopts a revised revenue-sharing formula that lowers the share of Eswatini, Lesotho, Botswana or Namibia.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
Budgets of the fourA lower share would cut revenue that the IMF singles out in Eswatini's budget [1].
DebtEswatini's debt is already rising towards 50% of GDP [1].

Sectors 1

Banks and insurers

Countries 5

Swaziland primary
Lesotho primary
Botswana
Namibia
South Africa

Who is exposed

Countries: Swaziland, Lesotho, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa
Sectors: Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

S1
Status quo
The formula stands; transfers follow the pool.
S2
Review opened
The Council of Ministers starts a formal review without a decision in the window.
S3
Cut agreed
A new formula lowers the smaller members' shares.

The signposts of each scenario
Path	Signpost
S1	South Africa's Budget Review figure for 2027/28 SACU payments, about February 2027
S2	A SACU communiqué naming a formula review
S3	South Africa's Treasury publishing modelling of alternatives

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
Remind me

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.

Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

The formula ties the neighbours' revenue to South Africa's customs and excise pool [2]. With the adjustment the IMF sets out, Eswatini's debt would peak above 52% of GDP and fall to about 45% by end-FY31/32 [1].

Connected in Strature

Namibia
South Africa
Botswana loses its investment-grade credit rating Shares a channel: Moody's cited lower SACU receipts in its Botswana cut.
The United States puts a new duty of 10% or more on Lesotho's goods Shares a channel: Lesotho's revenue and trade both pass through SACU.
The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25% Shares a channel: The IMF advises Eswatini to calibrate its rate alignment with South Africa's.

Sources

3 sources, numbered as the text cites them

IMF Staff Completes 2026 Article IV Mission to the Kingdom of Eswatini (PR 26/273). IMF · 5 Aug 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
SACU payment obligations (NCOP question 743, written reply). National Treasury (South Africa) via Parliamentary Monitoring Group · 19 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
SACU Revenue Sharing Formula (NCOP question 1068, written reply). National Treasury (South Africa) via Parliamentary Monitoring Group · 28 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks