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World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

The United States puts a new duty of 10% or more on Lesotho's goods

The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the United States imposes an additional import duty of 10% or more that applies to Lesotho's goods (by tariff order, proclamation or the end of Lesotho's AGOA eligibility), in force for at least 30 days.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration5
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. AGOA extension to 31 Dec 2028 took effect on 2 Sep 2026; ministry to keep engaging the US bilaterally and through SACU [2]
  2. AGOA renewal to 31 Dec 2028 signed on 2 Sep 2026 [3]

Why it matters

Lesotho's garments re-entered the US duty-free when a temporary 10% US surcharge on all imports ended on 24 Jul 2026, and AGOA was renewed to 31 Dec 2028 on 2 Sep 2026. Lesotho was left out of a new round of US tariffs on 60 countries on 24 Jul 2026. A new duty would need a new US order or the loss of Lesotho's AGOA eligibility.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: that precedent; the AGOA eligibility consultation. Brakes: left out of the July 2026 round; AGOA renewed by law to 2028; Section 122 allows 150 days only.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case a 10% duty for 30 days.

The other facts on file (4)
  • Section 122 tariffs lifted (GroundUp dates it 29 Jul 2026); Lesotho spared Section 301 tariffs on 60 countries of 24 Jul 2026; US consulting on AGOA eligibility; garment sector over 30,000 workers; IMF warned over 30,000 jobs at risk [1] (30 Jul 2026)
  • 10% duty on all imports from 12:01 a.m. EST 24 Feb 2026 through 12:01 a.m. EDT 24 Jul 2026 (150 days, Section 122) [6] (25 Feb 2026)
  • One-year AGOA extension to 31 Dec 2026, retroactive to 30 Sep 2025; House passed H.R. 6500 340-54 on 12 Jan 2026; Senate cut it to one year [5] (6 Feb 2026)
  • Section 122 lapses after 150 days unless Congress extends it; Afriwise dates the lapse 29 Jul 2026; Lesotho excluded from the 24 Jul 2026 Section 301 round [4] (29 Jul 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

The United States puts a new duty of 10% or more on Lesotho's goods. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. The United States puts a new duty of 10% or more on Lesotho's goodsImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Lesotho
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · LESOTHO · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the United States imposes an additional import duty of 10% or more that applies to Lesotho's goods (by tariff order, proclamation or the end of Lesotho's AGOA eligibility), in force for at least 30 days.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Garment jobsFactory closures and job losses were warned of during the 2026 surcharge [1].
  3. Export earningsThe sector sends the bulk of its output to one market [4].
  4. EswatiniThe same AGOA and US-tariff channel covers its apparel (Strature's view; no figure sourced).

Goods 1

  • Garments

Countries 3

Who is exposed

Countries
Lesotho, Swaziland
Sectors
Agriculture and food
Goods
Garments, Textiles

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Access holds

    AGOA runs and no new US order names Lesotho.

  2. S2

    New global round

    A new US tariff order with a broad country list includes Lesotho.

  3. S3

    Eligibility lost

    A US review removes Lesotho from AGOA.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Lesotho kept on the next AGOA eligibility list
S2A US order naming sub-Saharan apparel exporters
S3A US notice opening an eligibility review of Lesotho

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [2] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  2. 31 Dec 2028 AGOA expires unless renewed [2] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · LESOTHO · strature.net

The other side

Renewal to 2028 gives buyers two years of duty-free sourcing from Lesotho [2][3]. The ministry is urging firms to use it to raise export volumes and diversify products [2].

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Relief for Lesotho as US tariffs expire. GroundUp · 30 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Lesotho secures duty-free U.S. market access until 2028 under AGOA. Lesotho News Agency (LENA) · 10 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. CCA statement on the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Corporate Council on Africa · 4 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Duty-free access restored: what the expiry of the US Section 122 tariffs means for Lesotho exporters. Afriwise · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. South Africa and US: AGOA's one-year extension, the road to renewal. Baker McKenzie Global Import blog · 6 Feb 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  6. Imposing a Temporary Import Surcharge To Address Fundamental International Payments Problems. Federal Register (United States) · 25 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks