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World risk · Finance and markets · Global debt & markets

The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25%

The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the SARB Monetary Policy Committee announces a repo rate above 7.25%.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Brent USD 114.87 on 28 Oct 2026; WSJ reported Washington told Gulf states to prepare for a renewed campaign after the 3 Nov midterms; UBS sees Brent near USD 110 to year-end [6]
  2. CPI 4.5% in September 2026 (4.4% Aug, 4.3% Jul); fuel +27.9% y/y; core 4.0%; October CPI out 18 Nov 2026 [4]
  3. September CPI below a 4.7% consensus; diesel +46.0%; core eased from 4.1% in August [5]
  4. Fuel levy cut R3/l diesel and R1.50/l petrol from 4 Nov to 1 Dec 2026, smaller cuts to 5 Jan 2027; cost R10bn [8]
  5. Next MPC decision 19 Nov 2026; 2027 MPC dates 28 Jan, 18 Mar, 27 May, 22 Jul, 29 Sep, 25 Nov (low confidence) [9]
  6. Brent about USD 98 at the start of October 2026 (low confidence) [7]
Show 3 earlier changes
  1. MPC raised the repo rate 25 bp to 7.25% from 25 Sep 2026, unanimous; prime 10.75% [1]
  2. SARB guide: rate broadly stable for the rest of 2026, cuts later as inflation falls to 3% near end-2027; 2026 growth cut to 1.2%; Kganyago: the fuel-price shock has intensified [2]
  3. SARB forecast headline inflation above 5% in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027; Nedbank sees the risk of further tightening as high; Nedbank: the risk of another rise in November remains high [3]

Why it matters

The SARB raised the repo rate by a quarter point to 7.25% on 23 Sep 2026, its second rise of the year, saying the fuel-price shock had intensified. Inflation rose to 4.5% in September, well above the 3% target, and Brent was near USD 115 a barrel on 28 Oct 2026. The SARB's own guide points to a stable rate and later cuts; one more rise inside a year is an open question.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: inflation up two months running, the SARB forecast of headline inflation above target in late 2026 and early 2027, oil near USD 115 with a reported US plan for a renewed campaign, levy relief ending 5 Jan 2027, Nedbank's view that the risk of another rise in November remains high.

Why Impact 4 Key price: the repo rate. Threshold case: one 25-point rise to 7.50%, a move of about 3.4%.

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25%: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The Reserve Bank raises South Africa's repo rate above 7.25%: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESJAPANFRANCEITALYMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the SARB Monetary Policy Committee announces a repo rate above 7.25%.

Not under way

Channels 5 on the card

  1. CanadaNo direct Canadian channel.
  2. Households and firmsPrime would rise to 11.00% on a 25-point step [1] (Strature's view on debt service).
  3. GrowthA third rise would weigh on growth already cut to 1.2% [2] (Strature's view).
  4. The rand and bondsA rise in answer to an oil shock could support the rand (Strature's view).
  5. NeighboursRand-pegged Lesotho, Eswatini and Namibia usually follow SARB moves (Strature's view; not sourced).

Goods 2

  • Diesel
  • Petrol

Sectors 4

  • Banks and insurers
  • Property
  • Retail
  • Vehicle finance

Countries 4

Who is exposed

Countries
South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, Namibia
Sectors
Banks and insurers, Property, Retail, Vehicle finance
Goods
Diesel, Petrol
Straits
Strait of Hormuz

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Hold and wait

    Oil steadies near USD 110 and the levy cut damps fuel prices; the MPC holds through early 2027.

  2. S2

    One more step

    A renewed Gulf campaign lifts oil and the rand weakens; the MPC raises again.

  3. S3

    Cuts in 2027

    A Gulf deal brings oil down and inflation heads to 3%; the MPC starts cutting.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1October CPI below 4.5%
S2The 19 Nov 2026 MPC statement
S3Iran's reply to the Qatari draft deal

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

61%F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative)
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
050100%

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2026 US midterm elections; reported date after which a renewed campaign may start [6] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 18 Nov 2026 October CPI release [4] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 19 Nov 2026 MPC decision [9] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 5 Jan 2027 Fuel levy relief ends [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  5. 28 Jan 2027 MPC decision [9] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  6. 18 Mar 2027 MPC decision [9] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  7. 27 May 2027 MPC decision [9] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  8. 22 Jul 2027 MPC decision [9] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  9. 29 Sep 2027 MPC decision [9] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  10. 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SOUTH AFRICA · strature.net

The other side

Higher rates can draw portfolio inflows that support the rand and lower imported inflation (Strature's view). Savers and money-market funds earn more.

Connected in Strature

Sources

9 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Sarb ups repo rate to 7.25%. Moneyweb · 23 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  2. MPC raises repo rate to 7.25%. SAnews (South African Government News Agency) · 23 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  3. MPC decision September 2026. Nedbank Group Economic Unit · 23 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  4. Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (P0141). Statistics South Africa · 21 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  5. South Africa inflation rises less than forecast. Trading Economics · 21 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  6. Oil prices up due to Houthi strikes and US threat to renew Iran war. The National · 28 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  7. Petrol price relief announced for South Africa. BusinessTech · 2026-10 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  8. Godongwana makes big announcements on fuel relief, oversight of municipalities, fiscal anchor. EWN · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  9. Interest Rate Forecast South Africa: Will Rates Go Down in 2026?. Bond.co.za · 2026-09-13 (updated 2026-10-17) · Industry · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks