Mozambique starts a restructuring of its Eurobond
The test By 1 Nov 2027, Mozambique launches an exchange offer or consent solicitation to change its US-dollar Eurobond's terms, or misses a payment on it beyond the grace period.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- 10-day IMF mission ended with positive signals for an ECF; second mission expected November 2026 [2]
Why it matters
Fitch cut Mozambique to CC on 27 Apr 2026 and said a restructuring of its sole outstanding Eurobond had become probable over the rating horizon. The government repaid the IMF early in March and is negotiating a new IMF programme, with a second mission expected in November 2026. Fitch projects public debt above 90% of GDP and reported arrears on debt service.
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: Fitch said on 27 Apr 2026 that a restructuring of the sole Eurobond has become probable over the rating horizon (Fitch's view); arrears and high debt; a programme negotiation that weighs debt sustainability. Brakes: no programme yet; the early IMF repayment shows cash.
Why Impact 4 Threshold: a consent solicitation on one bond. A missed payment, scores the same parts.
The other facts on file (4)
- Fitch cut Mozambique to CC; restructuring of the sole outstanding Eurobond has become probable; maturity extensions would likely be a distressed exchange [1] (27 Apr 2026)
- Debt above 90% of GDP through 2026-27; arrears about 1.3% of GDP at end-2025; current-account deficit about 17% of GDP in 2025; LNG output expected from 2028 [1] (27 Apr 2026)
- More than US$630m repaid to the IMF by end-March 2026, ahead of a schedule that ran to 2029 [3] (2 Apr 2026)
- Headline: President says debt talks would follow a new IMF programme [4] (15 Jan 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Mozambique starts a restructuring of its EurobondImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated. · Mozambique
How it spreads
By 1 Nov 2027, Mozambique launches an exchange offer or consent solicitation to change its US-dollar Eurobond's terms, or misses a payment on it beyond the grace period.
Not under waySectors 1
- Banks and insurers
Countries 1
- Mozambique primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Mozambique
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers, Energy and pipelines
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
IMF first, terms later
A programme is agreed and bond talks start after the window.
- S2
A friendly exchange
The government asks holders to extend maturities alongside the programme.
- S3
A missed payment
Cash runs short before a deal.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The staff-level agreement after the November 2026 mission |
| S2 | A consent solicitation in the first half of 2027 |
| S3 | A coupon unpaid at the end of a grace period in 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Second IMF mission on programme conditions [2] Tentative · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Mozambique
- Ethiopia's exchange of its defaulted US$1bn Eurobond is not completed by 31 Mar 2027 Shares a channel: Another African Eurobond exchange tied to an IMF programme.
- Gabon misses a payment on its external commercial debt Shares a channel: Another African sovereign with arrears.
- An insurgent attack halts construction at the Afungi LNG site again Shares a channel: LNG income is the state's route to repay.
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Fitch cuts Mozambique's rating to 6-year low, flags probable bond default. BusinessDay (Nigeria) · 27 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Mozambique: Government Closer to New Programme With IMF. AllAfrica · 21 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Mozambique clears IMF debt early. Africanews · 2 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Mozambique Eyes Debt Talks After New IMF Program; Eurobond Slips. Bloomberg · 15 Jan 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks