Ethiopia's exchange of its defaulted US$1bn Eurobond is not completed by 31 Mar 2027
The test On 31 Mar 2027, Ethiopia has not completed the exchange of its defaulted 2024 Eurobond for new notes.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- New US$880m bond at 6.15% for the US$1bn 6.625% bond; consent needs 75% of principal; Fitch keeps RD, completion possible before end-2026; default from a US$33m coupon missed 11 Dec 2023; about US$15bn under the Common Framework; Tigray fighting resumed September 2026; fuel subsidies reinstated; growth 7% in 2026/27 [1]
Why it matters
Ethiopia has been in default on its US$1bn Eurobond since it missed a US$33m coupon in December 2023. After talks failed in October 2025 and May 2026, it reached an agreement in principle with a bondholder committee on 28-29 Jun 2026. The consent solicitation was expected 'in the coming weeks' in mid-October, and Fitch says the exchange could close before end-2026.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: three failed rounds since 2024; three-quarters consent threshold; war. Brakes: agreed terms and official backing. 4, as two named parties expect completion.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case a slip of weeks past 31 Mar 2027.
The other facts on file (3)
- Agreement in principle after talks of 5-28 Jun 2026; 12% haircut; new bond to July 2029 at 6.15%; new-money warrant; IMF and OCC co-chairs confirm consistency [2] (29 Jun 2026)
- Talks closed 27 May 2026 without a deal; official creditors found the January 2024 terms (with a value-recovery instrument) short of comparability [3] (31 May 2026)
- Talks of 25 Sep to 13 Oct 2025 collapsed [4] (19 Oct 2025)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Ethiopia's exchange of its defaulted US$1bn Eurobond is not completed by 31 Mar 2027Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Ethiopia
How it spreads
On 31 Mar 2027, Ethiopia has not completed the exchange of its defaulted 2024 Eurobond for new notes.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Market accessCompletion is the step out of default; analysts warned in 2025 that a failure could delay market access [4].
- RatingsAn upgrade needs the commercial restructuring done (Fitch).
- Official creditorsA slip delays the end of the Common Framework process.
Sectors 1
- Banks and insurers
Countries 1
- Ethiopia primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Ethiopia
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Done on time
The consent passes and the exchange settles by early 2027.
- S2
Vote short
Fewer than 75% consent and terms are reopened.
- S3
War shock
Escalation with Eritrea or in Tigray delays the process.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Launch of the consent solicitation |
| S2 | An extended solicitation deadline |
| S3 | A Fitch or IMF warning tied to the war |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Launch of the consent solicitation (expected in the coming weeks from 17 Oct) [1] Tentative · Outside event
- 31 Dec 2026 Fitch's earliest completion view (before year-end) [1] Tentative · Window
- 31 Mar 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Ethiopia
- Fighting between federal and Tigrayan forces goes on in at least six of the next 12 months Driven by: The war strains the budget and is a named Fitch risk.
- Mozambique starts a restructuring of its Eurobond Shares a channel: Another African sovereign bond restructuring in the same market.
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Ethiopia nears eurobond exchange deal as Fitch flags path out of default. Capital (Ethiopia) · 17 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Bondholders Strike a Eurobond Deal, Ending Deadlock. Addis Fortune · 29 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Ethiopia's Eurobond restructuring talks collapse after bondholders reject revised offer. Capital (Ethiopia) · 31 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Ministry of Finance plans urgent consultations after failed Eurobond talks. Capital (Ethiopia) · 19 Oct 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks