Fighting between federal and Tigrayan forces goes on in at least six of the next 12 months
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, fighting between the federal army and TPLF or allied Tigrayan forces is reported in at least 6 of the 12 calendar months (by UN OCHA, ACLED or two news agencies).
Under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↑ since Sep 2026: fighting resumed
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Likelihood 8 to 6.
- EPFAS alliance formed 20 Sep with the aim of overthrowing the government; drone strikes killed at least 15 at Jari 2 camp in Amhara 30 Oct [4]
- Interim administration for six months named 16 Oct; AU envoy asked to negotiate 23 Sep [5]
- TDF clashed with federal forces in Central Tigray on 15, 22, 24, 26 and 29 Oct; fighting in Zana woreda on 19 Oct (preliminary alerts) [7]
- Fighting in Tigray resumed in September 2026, ending the 2022 peace agreement; conflict costs and reinstated fuel subsidies widen the deficit to 2% of GDP; growth 7% in 2026/27 (Fitch) [1]
- Ethiopian troops reached Zalambessa by 13 Oct; Rubio pointed Abiy to the 2018 framework for talks [3]
- TPLF seized Axum airport 23 Sep; ENDF captured Mekelle 3 Oct; Janes judges inter-state escalation very likely within one to 12 months [2]
Why it matters
War between Ethiopia's federal army and Tigrayan forces resumed in September 2026, ending the 2022 peace deal. The army took Mekelle on 3 Oct and reached the Eritrean border on 13 Oct. A caretaker administration was named on 16 Oct, but ACLED logged clashes with Tigrayan forces through 29 Oct.
Why Likelihood 8 Starts at 8; not 9 because the AU envoy is working on an exit. Pushes: October clashes; Janes and Fitch treat the war as a live risk; Eritrea's role. Brakes: Mekelle lost; interim administration of 16 Oct; AU envoy and US call for talks.
Why Impact 5 Threshold case six months of reported fighting.
The other facts on file (1)
- Clashes in January 2026 and near the Sudan border from about 1 Aug 2026 [6] (3 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Fighting between federal and Tigrayan forces goes on in at least six of the next 12 monthsImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 8 of 10, High. · Ethiopia · Under way
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, fighting between the federal army and TPLF or allied Tigrayan forces is reported in at least 6 of the 12 calendar months (by UN OCHA, ACLED or two news agencies).
Under way nowChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Budget and debtFitch cites conflict costs and reinstated fuel subsidies; deficit 2% of GDP and growth 7% in 2026/27 [1].
- PeopleFighting disrupts services and aid and raises displacement (Fitch) [1].
- RegionJanes judged on 6 Oct that escalation to war with Eritrea is very likely within one to 12 months [2].
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Insurgency
Tigrayan forces fight on from rural areas.
- S2
Talks
AU or US mediation brings a ceasefire.
- S3
Wider war
Fighting spreads to Eritrea.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | ACLED alerts of clashes each month |
| S2 | A ceasefire signed under the AU envoy |
| S3 | A clash between the two national armies |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Apr 2027 End of the six-month interim administration and planned elections in Tigray [5] Tentative · Outside event
- 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window [5] Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Ethiopia
- Eritrea
- Ethiopia's exchange of its defaulted US$1bn Eurobond is not completed by 31 Mar 2027 Drives: Fitch names the war as a risk to Ethiopia's finances.
- Ethiopian and Eritrean armies fight each other directly Drives: The advance to the border came with the break in ties with Eritrea.
- World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150 Shares a channel: Ethiopia is named as exposed there.
Sources
7 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Ethiopia nears eurobond exchange deal as Fitch flags path out of default. Capital (Ethiopia) · 17 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Ethiopian advances in Tigray indicate high risk of inter-state conflict with Eritrea. Janes · 6 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Eritrea accuses Ethiopia at the UN over Assab. The Rio Times · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- 2026 in Ethiopia. Wikipedia · 1 Nov 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- 2026 Ethiopian offensive. Wikipedia · 1 Nov 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Tigray fighting rekindles fears of wider war. Geeska · 3 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Ethiopia Alerts archive (alerts of 15-29 Oct 2026). ACLED · 29 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review; Likelihood 8 to 6 · All risks