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World risk · Energy and resources

An insurgent attack halts construction at the Afungi LNG site again

The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the Mozambique LNG project at Afungi (Palma district, Cabo Delgado) declares force majeure or suspends construction for 30 days or more after an insurgent attack, as announced by the operator or the government.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth3
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Headlines: local force member killed near the Nangade-Palma border (16 Sep 2026); abductions in Mocímboa da Praia (15 Oct 2026); two killed in Muidumbe and N380 blocked in Macomia (29 Oct 2026) [2]

Why it matters

Construction of the Mozambique LNG project at Afungi restarted in full on 29 Jan 2026, after force majeure declared in 2021 was lifted on 7 Nov 2025. The insurgency in Cabo Delgado has not ended: attacks were reported in Palma's border area, Mocímboa da Praia, Muidumbe and Macomia from September to late October 2026. A second halt needs an attack that reaches the site's security perimeter, which no source reports in 2026.

Why Likelihood 3 No halt in the last 36 months. Push: attacks in four Cabo Delgado districts from September to October 2026. Brakes: Rwandan cooperation and government security measures; no 2026 attack reported at Afungi.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case a 30-day suspension.

The other facts on file (3)
  • Full restart announced at Afungi on 29 Jan 2026; force majeure lifted 7 Nov 2025; 40% built; over 4,000 workers; first LNG targeted 2029; security measures and cooperation with Rwanda confirmed [1] (29 Jan 2026)
  • IMF baseline: LNG output from the onshore and offshore projects from 2030 [3] (19 Feb 2026)
  • More than 150 insurgents attacked and seized Palma town in March 2021 [4] (31 Mar 2021)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

An insurgent attack halts construction at the Afungi LNG site again. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. An insurgent attack halts construction at the Afungi LNG site againImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Mozambique
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · MOZAMBIQUE · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the Mozambique LNG project at Afungi (Palma district, Cabo Delgado) declares force majeure or suspends construction for 30 days or more after an insurgent attack, as announced by the operator or the government.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Growth pathA new halt would push first LNG past 2029 and delay the IMF's baseline [1][3].
  3. Jobs and contractsOver 4,000 workers and more than US$4bn of local contracts [1].
  4. LNG marketsNo LNG before 2029 [1]; the effect is on supply later in the decade (Strature's view).

Goods 1

Sectors 2

  • Energy and pipelines
  • Ports and logistics

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Mozambique
Sectors
Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
Goods
LNG
Companies
TotalEnergies, Mitsui, ENH, ONGC Videsh, PTTEP

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Contained

    Attacks stay inland and north; works continue.

  2. S2

    Close call

    An attack in Palma district disrupts roads or supply without a formal halt.

  3. S3

    Second halt

    An attack near the perimeter brings a suspension of 30 days or more.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The operator's next quarterly progress update, 2027-01
S2A report of fighting on the Palma-Afungi road
S3The operator demobilising contractors

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · MOZAMBIQUE · strature.net

The other side

The project survived a four-year halt and restarted with most engineering and procurement done [1]. If works continue, Mozambique gains jobs and contracts now and export revenue from 2029-2030 [1][3].

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Mozambique LNG announces the full restart of all its activities onshore and offshore. TotalEnergies · 29 Jan 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Mozambique Conflict Monitor. Zitamar News · 29 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. Republic of Mozambique: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Country Report No. 26/45. IMF · 19 Feb 2026 · International body · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Daesh-ISIS attack in Mozambique leaves dozens dead. The Catholic Herald · 31 Mar 2021 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks