Truck drivers blockade the EU border crossings of Bosnia or Serbia again
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, truck drivers blockade freight border crossings from Bosnia and Herzegovina or Serbia towards the EU for 24 hours or more, as reported by border police, a government or two news sources.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Likelihood 3 to 4.
- Entry/Exit System fully operational 10 Apr 2026; detects overstayers automatically [3]
Why it matters
In late January 2026 truck drivers from Bosnia and Serbia, with drivers from Montenegro and North Macedonia, blocked freight crossings towards the EU for about four days. They object to the 90-days-in-180 Schengen limit, now enforced by the EU's Entry/Exit System. In August they threatened a new blockade; the Commission said the rule will not change, and the threat was suspended in September after talks.
Why Likelihood 4 Two drivers (the rule, which the Commission said on 1 Sep will not change; the drivers' renewed threat of 31 Aug) with a brake holding (the suspension after the 11 Sep talks) give 4.
The other facts on file (6)
- From noon on 26 Jan 2026 hundreds of Bosnian drivers blocked all eight freight crossings with Croatia; about 7 million tonnes a year move by road between Bosnia and the EU [1] (27 Jan 2026)
- Drivers from Bosnia, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia blocked freight terminals from 26 Jan; Serbian and Bosnian drivers stopped on 30 Jan [2] (30 Jan 2026)
- Lanes at 23 Serbian crossings blocked on the fifth day; Serbia's Chamber of Commerce: 93% of regional exports stopped, about EUR 92m a day [4] (30 Jan 2026)
- Drivers protested in four capitals and threatened a blockade of EU crossings on 14 Sep 2026 [5] (31 Aug 2026)
- Commission spokesperson: Schengen rules will not change [6] (1 Sep 2026)
- The 14 Sep blockade was suspended indefinitely on 11 Sep after a reported breakthrough in talks; the dispute remains [7] (11 Sep 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, truck drivers blockade freight border crossings from Bosnia and Herzegovina or Serbia towards the EU for 24 hours or more, as reported by border police, a government or two news sources.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Road freightAbout 7 million tonnes of goods move by road between Bosnia and the EU each year [1]; the January action stopped 93% of regional exports, at about EUR 92m a day, said Serbia's Chamber of Commerce president [4].
- Trade with the EUSerbia's foreign trade in the first half of 2026 was over EUR 39bn, 58% of it with EU countries [5].
Sectors 2
- Road freight
- Manufacturing
Countries 2
- Bosnia and Herzegovina primary
- Serbia primary
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Croatia.
- Sectors
- Road freight, Manufacturing
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
EU fix
A longer stay for drivers is agreed and protests end.
- S2
Simmering
Arrests or fines of drivers bring protests shorter than 24 hours.
- S3
Second blockade
Drivers block crossings for days again.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The terms of the September deal made public |
| S2 | Reports of drivers refused entry for overstays |
| S3 | A new strike date called by Bosnian or Serbian carriers' groups |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Connected in Strature
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Serbia
- Montenegro has not closed all its EU chapters by 31 Oct 2027 Shares a channel: The Western Balkans' ties with the EU.
- Bosnia still has no new state government on 30 Jun 2027 Shares a channel: Bosnia's governance and its EU path.
Sources
7 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Hundreds of truck drivers paralyze cargo transport between Bosnia, EU. The Star (Xinhua) · 27 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Truck drivers in the region stop the blockades, EU to consider solutions to the problem. European Western Balkans · 30 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Entry/Exit System (EES). European Commission, Migration and Home Affairs · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Serbian, B-H truckers continue border protest. N1 · 30 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Western Balkans truck drivers threaten EU border blockade. Al Jazeera · 31 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Schengen's 90-day rule will not change despite concerns of professional drivers. European Western Balkans · 1 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Balkan hauliers to block EU borders again as supply chain disruption looms. trans.info · 11 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: Likelihood 3 to 4 · All risks