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World risk · Regulation and compliance

Madagascar's military transition misses its election month

The test Madagascar has not held the first round of a presidential election by 31 Oct 2027, judged on that date.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration3
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. CENI ready from July 2027; voter roll to end April 2027; new electoral law planned; programme keeps presidential vote before end-2027 [4]

Why it matters

The military took power in Madagascar in October 2025 and Col. Michael Randrianirina pledged elections within two years. The electoral commission (CENI) planned a constitutional referendum for June 2027 and the presidential vote for October 2027, but the transition programme only promises a presidential vote before the end of 2027. Whether the first round comes by 31 Oct 2027 is an open question.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: referendum first; voter roll to April 2027; new electoral law still to come; programme's year-end limit. Brakes: the CENI's October target; the leader's public pledge. Sources split.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case a slip of weeks.

The other facts on file (5)
  • Military took power 12-14 Oct 2025; Randrianirina sworn in 17 Oct 2025, pledged elections within 18 months to two years; AU suspended Madagascar [1] (17 Oct 2025)
  • CENI timeline: referendum June 2027, presidential vote October 2027, after a voter-roll overhaul [2] (11 May 2026)
  • Programme handed to SADC on 28 Feb puts a first vote in May-July 2027, dates open to revision; Randrianirina said nobody had fixed July and elections will take place in 2027 [3] (Aug 2026)
  • IMF credit outstanding SDR 620.19m [5] (31 Mar 2026)
  • Central bank rate 12.5% from Aug 2026 [6] (Aug 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Madagascar's military transition misses its election month. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Madagascar's military transition misses its election monthImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated. · Madagascar
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · MADAGASCAR · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Madagascar has not held the first round of a presidential election by 31 Oct 2027, judged on that date.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. DiplomacyA slip prolongs the AU suspension [1].
  3. Donor moneySlows the return of budget support; IMF credit outstanding SDR 620.19m [5].

Sectors 2

  • Mining and metals
  • Agriculture and food

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Madagascar
Sectors
Mining and metals, Agriculture and food, Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    On the CENI's track

    Referendum mid-2027, presidential first round in October.

  2. S2

    Slip of weeks

    The vote falls in November or December 2027, inside the programme's limit.

  3. S3

    Long slip

    The constitution process overruns and the vote moves to 2028.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The new electoral law passed after the November consultation report
S2The voter roll finished after April 2027
S3The referendum not held by July 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 National consultation findings presented [4] Tentative · Outside event
  2. Apr 2027 Voter-roll revision due to end [4] Tentative · Outside event
  3. Jun 2027 Constitutional referendum (CENI timeline) [2] Declared · Outside event
  4. Oct 2027 Presidential election (CENI timeline) [2] Declared · Outside event
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · MADAGASCAR · strature.net

The other side

A clean vote on the CENI's timeline would end the AU suspension and reopen donor and investor channels (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. 2025 Malagasy coup d'état. Wikipedia · 1 Nov 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Madagascar presidential election scheduled for October 2027. Africanews · 11 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. ELECTION - Le chef de l'Etat apporte des précisions. L'Express de Madagascar · 2026-08 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Le colonel Randrianirina sur la radio des Nations Unies (UN Radio interview, late September 2026). L'Express de Madagascar · 2026-10 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. Madagascar country page. International Monetary Fund · 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  6. Madagascar country reading, theme gulf-war-hormuz. Strature library · 29 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks