Sign in Get in touch
World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

No final US trade agreement with Switzerland and Liechtenstein by Nov 2027

The test By 3 Nov 2027, the United States, Switzerland and Liechtenstein have not signed a final trade agreement replacing the framework of 14 Nov 2025.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

The US, Switzerland and Liechtenstein agreed a non-binding framework on 14 Nov 2025, aiming to conclude a full agreement in early 2026. The US Supreme Court ruled on the reciprocal tariffs behind it on 20 Feb 2026, and the US has since used other laws; Switzerland's economy ministry says a binding agreement is still being pursued. Without one, Liechtenstein's exporters stay exposed to shifting US duties.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the early-2026 target passed and no agreement was signed by August 2026; the US legal basis for duties changed twice in 2026. Brakes: a year in the window; both sides still negotiating.

The other facts on file (5)
  • Framework of 14 Nov 2025: reciprocal tariff no higher than 15%; US$200bn investment pledge; aim to conclude in early 2026 [1] (14 Nov 2025)
  • IMF staff: trilateral talks ongoing; effective US tariff nearly 30% in 2025; sectoral tariffs up to 50% [2] (27 Jan 2026)
  • IMF: effective US tariff around 25% in 2025; growth 0.0% in 2025; surplus 2.8% of GDP; net financial assets above 140% of GDP [3] (27 Mar 2026)
  • US medicines proclamation: 15% for Switzerland and Liechtenstein jointly, with a clause allowing a rise [5] (2 Apr 2026)
  • SECO: Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs 20 Feb 2026; Section 122 surcharge to 24 Jul 2026; Section 301 surcharge up to 12.5% since; binding agreement still pursued [6] (17 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

AUSTRIASWITZERLAND11. No final US trade agreement with Switzerland and Liechtenstein by Nov 2027: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 No US dealfor LiechtensteinNO US DEAL FOR LIECHTENSTEIN0200 kmat 47°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
SWITZERLAND11. No final US trade agreement with Switzerland and Liechtenstein by Nov 2027: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 No US dealfor LiechtensteinNO US DEAL FOR LIECHTENSTEIN0200 kmat 47°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

By 3 Nov 2027, the United States, Switzerland and Liechtenstein have not signed a final trade agreement replacing the framework of 14 Nov 2025.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. ExportersWithout a binding agreement, Liechtenstein's machinery and metal exporters stay exposed to US sectoral tariffs of up to 50% [2].
  3. GrowthThe IMF links weak growth and job cuts in the automotive supply sector to US tariffs [3].

Sectors 1

  • Autos

Countries 2

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Liechtenstein, Switzerland.

Sectors
Autos

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Signed

    The three parties sign a final agreement in 2027.

  2. S2

    Drift

    The framework stays as it is and no agreement is signed.

  3. S3

    Reset

    The US reviews the framework and raises tariffs.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1a signing announced by the Swiss and Liechtenstein governments
S2no new US Federal Register notice on Switzerland and Liechtenstein in 2027
S3a US notice raising duties on Swiss or Liechtenstein goods

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2027 Date on which the event is judged [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · LIECHTENSTEIN · strature.net

The other side

Liechtenstein has large fiscal buffers, net financial assets above 140% of GDP and virtually no debt, which give it room to absorb a longer wait [3].

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Fact Sheet: The United States, Switzerland and Liechtenstein Reach a Historic Trade Deal. The White House · 14 Nov 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Principality of Liechtenstein: Staff Concluding Statement for the 2026 Article IV Mission. International Monetary Fund · 27 Jan 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Liechtenstein: IMF Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with the Principality of Liechtenstein. International Monetary Fund · 27 Mar 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Adjusting Imports of Pharmaceuticals and Pharmaceutical Ingredients into the United States. The White House · 2 Apr 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Handelsbeziehung Schweiz-USA. State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), Switzerland · 17 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks