A tropical cyclone forces a state of emergency in Tonga, Samoa or Tuvalu
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the government of Tonga, Samoa or Tuvalu declares a state of emergency or disaster because of a tropical cyclone.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Cyclone Wati hit the Cook Islands before the season officially began, Prime Minister Mark Brown said [5]
- Seven to eleven named cyclones expected in the Southwest Pacific, November 2026-April 2027; at least four of category 3 or higher may occur anywhere in the region [1]
- Elevated activity in the north, north-east and central Southwest Pacific; normal to elevated in the south-east; higher risk near and east of the Date Line [1]
- Sea temperatures well above El Niño thresholds in early October 2026 [1]
- Past strong El Niños brought more cyclones and more activity east of the Date Line; the season could start early [2]
- NOAA expects a very strong El Niño in 2026-27 [4]
Why it matters
The regional outlook issued on 14 Oct 2026 expects seven to eleven named tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific from November 2026 to April 2027, with at least four that may reach category 3 or higher, and elevated activity in the north, north-east and central parts of the region. A very strong El Niño is behind it, and it shifts storms east of the Date Line, towards Tonga, Samoa and Tuvalu. One severe storm can wreck a small island economy's housing, crops and power for months.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: an official outlook of elevated activity in the central and north-eastern zones; at least four severe storms possible anywhere in the region; a very strong El Niño shifting storms east; an early start, with Wati already in October. Brakes: the outlook names no country; three small targets in a wide ocean.
Why Impact 4 Scored at the threshold (one declaration).
The other facts on file (1)
- Significantly below-normal rain favoured for Tonga, Samoa and southern Tuvalu, August-October 2026 [3] (Aug 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the government of Tonga, Samoa or Tuvalu declares a state of emergency or disaster because of a tropical cyclone.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Homes and powerWind and storm surge damage housing, power lines and water systems on low islands.
- Food and exportsRoot crops, coconuts and fisheries gear are lost; farm exports fall for a season.
- Public financeRebuilding draws on reserves and donor grants; Australia and New Zealand lead the first response.
Sectors 3
- Agriculture and food
- Households
- Tourism
Countries 5
- Tonga primary
- Samoa primary
- Tuvalu primary
- New Zealand
- Australia
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Tonga, Samoa, Tuvalu, New Zealand, Australia.
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food, Households, Tourism
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
A direct hit
A severe cyclone strikes one of the three and a state of emergency follows.
- S2
Near misses
Storms pass close with local damage but no declaration.
- S3
A quiet east
Storms track west or south.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A cyclone warning for Tonga or Samoa from the Fiji Meteorological Service between December and March |
| S2 | Several named storms east of the Date Line by February 2027 |
| S3 | The January 2027 outlook update cuts activity in the central zone |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Southwest Pacific cyclone season opens [1] Declared · Window
- Apr 2027 Season closes [1] Declared · Window
The other side
The outlook covers the whole region and names none of the three countries; its severe storms may occur anywhere in a wide ocean [1].
Connected in Strature
- New Zealand
- Australia
- A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply Driven by: The strong El Niño shifts cyclone activity east towards these islands.
- Palau, the FSM or the Marshall Islands declares a drought emergency as El Niño peaks Shares a channel: The same El Niño in the Pacific islands.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook, October 2026. Earth Sciences New Zealand · 14 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Southwest Pacific faces increased tropical cyclone risk. Pacific Islands News Association · 14 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Island Climate Update, August 2026. Earth Sciences New Zealand · 2026-08 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Hawaii and U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook, September 2026. NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System · 2026-09 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- PM Brown shifts focus to recovery after Cyclone Wati hits Cook Islands. Pacific Islands News Association · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks