Palau, the FSM or the Marshall Islands declares a drought emergency as El Niño peaks
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the national government of Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia (or one of its four states) or the Marshall Islands declares a state of emergency or disaster for drought.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
NOAA expects a very strong El Niño through the northern winter of 2026-27. Palau has already entered drought, and forecasters see below-normal rain for Palau, much of the FSM and the central Marshall Islands this autumn. In the strong El Niño of 2015-16, Palau declared a national emergency; the atolls of all three states draw their water from rain.
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: a very strong El Niño near certain; below-normal rain favoured for Palau, much of the FSM and the central Marshall Islands; Palau's weather office expects no rain until after January; Palau's 2016 national emergency.
The other facts on file (6)
- El Niño Advisory in effect; NOAA puts the odds of a very strong El Niño in northern autumn and winter 2026-27 above nine in ten [1] (10 Sep 2026)
- Earth Sciences New Zealand: one of the strongest El Niños on record, if not the strongest [2] (Aug 2026)
- Palau's weather office: the country is in drought, with no rain expected until after January; the National Emergency Committee keeps a Stage One water shortage watch; dams at normal levels [3] (17 Aug 2026)
- Water hours in Ngaraard and Ngarchelong; Palau declared a national emergency in the 2016 drought [4] (21 Apr 2026)
- Utirik, northern Marshall Islands, in extreme drought and Wotje in severe drought [5] (27 Mar 2026)
- Utirik and Wotje free of drought since 7 Apr 2026; water shortages reported on Woleai, Yap State [6] (24 Apr 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the national government of Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia (or one of its four states) or the Marshall Islands declares a state of emergency or disaster for drought.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Water and healthRationing and trucked water, as in Palau's northern states in April 2026 [4]; atolls that rely on rain catchment or a shallow water lens dry out fastest [5].
- FoodRoot crops and trees suffer in long dry spells [4].
- Public finance and aidA declaration opens disaster aid, including from the United States.
Sectors 2
- Agriculture and food
- Households
Countries 4
- Palau primary
- Micronesia primary
- Marshall Islands primary
- United States
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Palau, Micronesia, Marshall Islands.
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food, Households
- Goods
- Water
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Dry season emergency
Rain fails from January to April 2027 and at least one government declares.
- S2
Rationing only
Water hours and trucks but no declaration.
- S3
Rain holds
The El Niño's wet side keeps eastern atolls supplied.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A US Drought Monitor drought level in NOAA's December 2026 outlook |
| S2 | Palau stays at Stage One into February 2027 |
| S3 | Above-normal rain in Majuro and Pohnpei through the winter |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Dec 2026 NOAA quarterly climate outlook for the US-affiliated Pacific islands [1] Tentative · Strature date
- Mar 2027 Height of the northern dry season, when this year's Marshall Islands drought peaked [5] Tentative · Window
Connected in Strature
- United States
- A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply Driven by: The strong El Niño is the driver of the forecast dry spell.
- A tropical cyclone forces a state of emergency in Tonga, Samoa or Tuvalu Shares a channel: The same El Niño in the Pacific islands.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Hawaii and U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook, September 2026. NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System · 2026-09 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Island Climate Update, August 2026. Earth Sciences New Zealand · 2026-08 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Palau Enters Drought as El Niño Brings Prolonged Dry Conditions. Island Times · 18 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Palau faces emerging drought as water rationing begins in northern states. Island Times · 21 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Drought Information Statement for Micronesia, valid March 27, 2026. National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Guam · 27 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Drought Information Statement for Micronesia, valid April 24, 2026. National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Guam · 24 Apr 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks