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World risk · Energy and resources

Uzbekistan rations gas or power for a week in winter

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, Uzbekistan's authorities close gas filling stations nationwide, or impose scheduled household gas or power cuts in Tashkent, for 7 days in a row or more, as announced by the government or reported by two sources.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration2
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Ministry official: no electricity supply disruptions expected this autumn and winter apart from scheduled maintenance (as reported) [5]

Why it matters

Uzbekistan's gas output is falling and its imports from Russia and Turkmenistan are rising: output fell 15% in the first quarter of 2026 while the import bill more than doubled. Last winter the energy ministry restricted methane filling stations in January and again, across the country, in March 2026, to keep gas flowing to households. The question is whether a cold spell this winter forces a nationwide closure or a week of scheduled cuts in Tashkent.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: repeated station limits in one winter, one nationwide. Brakes: the ministry protects households; the ministry expects no power disruptions this winter. Two drivers with blockers holding.

The other facts on file (3)
  • Gas output 9.6 bcm in Jan-Mar 2026 against 11.3 bcm a year earlier (Statistics Committee); gas imports, mostly from Russia and Turkmenistan, US$360.5m, more than double (as reported) [1] (7 May 2026)
  • Energy ministry restricted methane filling stations as cold cut pipeline pressure in some areas; homes, health and education first; social facilities and public transport kept supplied; no end date [2] (20 Jan 2026)
  • Energy ministry restricted methane station operations across Uzbekistan from 16:00, no end time, after cold raised demand [4] (10 Mar 2026)

Where it sits

KAZAKHSTANUZBEKISTANAFGHANISTANTURKMENISTANKYRGYZSTAN11. Uzbekistan rations gas or power for a week in winter: Low impact · possible (Tashkent)1 Uzbekistan rations gasor power for a weekin winterLow impact · possible · TashkentUZBEK WINTER GAS RATIONING0500 kmat 41°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
KAZAKHSTAN11. Uzbekistan rations gas or power for a week in winter: Low impact · possible (Tashkent)1 Uzbek winter gasrationingUZBEK WINTER GAS RATIONING0500 kmat 41°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, Uzbekistan's authorities close gas filling stations nationwide, or impose scheduled household gas or power cuts in Tashkent, for 7 days in a row or more, as announced by the government or reported by two sources.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. TransportCars and buses that run on methane queue or stop when stations close [2].
  3. IndustryStrature's view: gas-using plants would likely lose supply when pressure falls.
  4. ImportsMore gas from Russia and Turkmenistan at a higher bill [1].

Goods 1

  • Natural gas

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 3

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Russia.

Sectors
Energy and pipelines
Goods
Natural gas

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Mild winter

    Short station limits at most, as in 2025-26.

  2. S2

    Hard limits

    Station limits across the country for weeks.

  3. S3

    Full closure

    A cold spell forces a nationwide station closure or Tashkent cuts for a week.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No ministry notice of a nationwide station closure by March 2027
S2A ministry notice extending limits beyond some regions in January 2027
S3A government order closing all CNG stations

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 Start of the winter heating peak [2] Tentative · Window
  2. Mar 2027 End of the winter heating peak [2] Tentative · Window
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · UZBEKISTAN · strature.net

The other side

The ministry protects households and has restricted stations rather than cutting homes [2][4], and it expects no electricity disruptions this winter [5]. Rising imports [1] give a buffer, at a cost.

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Uzbekistan's Gas Production Falls as Imports Surge. Kursiv Uzbekistan · 7 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Temporary restrictions reintroduced on methane refueling stations across Uzbekistan. Kun.uz · 20 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Cold weather prompts new methane station restrictions across Uzbekistan. Kun.uz · 10 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Uzbekistan Expects No Power Outages This Winter. UzDaily · 17 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks