Sign in Get in touch
World risk · Geopolitics and conflict

A leading presidential candidate or party is barred before Guatemala's 27 Jun 2027 vote

The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 27 Jun 2027, the TSE or a Guatemalan court refuses, cancels or suspends the registration of a presidential candidate, or of a party, that is in the top three of published polls.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Semilla suspended by a criminal judge in 2023-24 and still suspended; ex-Semilla party Raíces registered 30 Sep 2026 [3]

Why it matters

Guatemala elects a president, 160 deputies and 340 mayors in June 2027, on a calendar the electoral tribunal set in June 2026 (as reported). In 2023 courts and electoral authorities ruled out three presidential hopefuls, including the poll leader a month before the vote, and the party that won the presidency, Semilla, remains suspended by a criminal court. No current case against a leading 2027 contender has been cited.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: the 2023 exclusions of three hopefuls including the poll leader; Semilla's continuing suspension; party cancellations in 2025-26. Brakes: no current case against a leading contender; no poll cited.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: one top-three contender barred.

The other facts on file (3)
  • TSE calendar (as reported): call 22 Jan 2027; registration 23 Jan to 28 Mar; first round 27 Jun; possible runoff 22 Aug 2027; about nine million voters (preliminary); up to 34 parties [1] (25 Jun 2026)
  • Constitutional Court ended poll leader Carlos Pineda's candidacy; third hopeful ruled ineligible after Arzú and Cabrera; EU, US and IACHR concerned [2] (26 May 2023)
  • TSE confirmed cancellation of Podemos and Partido Popular Guatemalteco; FCN-Nación cancelled in August 2025 [4] (23 Mar 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

A leading presidential candidate or party is barred before Guatemala's 27 Jun 2027 vote. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. A leading presidential candidate or party is barred before Guatemala's 27 Jun 2027 voteImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Guatemala
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · GUATEMALA · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 1 Nov 2026 and 27 Jun 2027, the TSE or a Guatemalan court refuses, cancels or suspends the registration of a presidential candidate, or of a party, that is in the top three of published polls.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. InstitutionsA barred front-runner would test the institutions that let the 2023 result stand [2] (Strature's view).
  3. RelationsThe US and EU objected in 2023 [2]; a repeat could bring statements or visa measures (Strature's view).

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Guatemala, United States

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Clean field

    All leading candidates register.

  2. S2

    Contested field

    A leading candidate is challenged but reinstated on appeal.

  3. S3

    Repeat of 2023

    A front-runner is ruled out weeks before the vote.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Registration closes on 28 Mar 2027 with no top-three exclusion
S2A Constitutional Court ruling in April-May 2027
S3A criminal case opened against a leading candidate or party

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 22 Jan 2027 TSE calls the general elections [1] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 28 Mar 2027 Candidate registration closes [1] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 27 Jun 2027 First round of the general elections [1] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 22 Aug 2027 Possible presidential runoff [1] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · GUATEMALA · strature.net

The other side

A clean registration would strengthen confidence in the TSE after the 2023 exclusions [2] (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Guatemala-elecciones: Primera vuelta será el 27 de junio de 2027. Prensa Latina · 25 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Guatemala's top court ends candidacy of another presidential hopeful 1 month before the vote. AP via PBS NewsHour · 26 May 2023 · News · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. TSE inscribe oficialmente al partido político Raíces. Emisoras Unidas · 2 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. TSE oficializa la cancelación de dos partidos. Emisoras Unidas · 23 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks