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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

Drought cuts the 2027 cereal harvest by a quarter in two Maghreb states

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, FAO GIEWS or the national ministry puts the 2027 cereal harvest at least 25% below its five-year average in at least two of Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth3
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

After drought years, 2026 brought cereal harvests above the five-year average in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. All three still import much of their wheat, so a dry 2027 season would raise import bills at once. One good year and refilled reservoirs make a quarter shortfall in two of the three a weak case.

Why Likelihood 3 Driver: consecutive drought harvests before 2026. Blocker in force: one good year and refilled reservoirs; the five-year average now includes the drought years, which makes a quarter shortfall against it harder. One driver with a strong blocker = 3.

Why Impact 4 Canadian exposure is a gain, not a loss.

The other facts on file (4)
  • Morocco 2026 cereal crop 6.3 Mt, about 16% above the five-year average after consecutive drought-affected harvests; reservoirs refilled; 2026/27 wheat imports forecast at 5 Mt [1] (8 Jul 2026)
  • Algeria 2026 cereal crop about 5 Mt, nearly 30% above average, largest since 2019; 2026/27 wheat imports about 8.5 Mt [2] (30 Jun 2026)
  • Tunisia 2026 cereal crop about 1.8 Mt, nearly 20% above the five-year average; wheat imports of about 1.8 Mt still above half of local wheat supply [3] (26 Aug 2026)
  • Canada's wheat exports to Algeria C$656.1m in 2025, its fifth wheat market [4] (2025)

Where it sits

ALGERIAMOROCCO11. Drought cuts the 2027 cereal harvest by a quarter in two Maghreb states: Elevated impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Maghreb cereal harvestfailsElevated impact · unlikelyMAGHREB CEREAL HARVEST FAILS0500 kmat 29°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
ALGERIAMOROCCO11. Drought cuts the 2027 cereal harvest by a quarter in two Maghreb states: Elevated impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Maghreb cerealharvest failsMAGHREB CEREAL HARVEST FAILS0500 kmat 29°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, FAO GIEWS or the national ministry puts the 2027 cereal harvest at least 25% below its five-year average in at least two of Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaA short crop raises demand for Canadian wheat [4]; a gain, not a loss.
  2. Import billsEach country buys more wheat at once, on top of forecast imports of 5 Mt, 8.5 Mt and 1.8 Mt [1][2][3].
  3. SubsidiesBread subsidies cost more in all three.

Goods 1

Sectors 2

  • Agriculture and food
  • Ports and logistics

Countries 6

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, France, Russia, Canada.

Sectors
Agriculture and food, Ports and logistics
Goods
Wheat

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Second good year

    Harvests stay near average.

  2. S2

    One country dry

    Drought hits one of the three.

  3. S3

    Regional drought

    A dry winter cuts all three harvests.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1FAO's spring 2027 briefs show crops in good condition
S2A delayed planting report for one country in December 2026
S3FAO warns of poor rain across North Africa by March 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Mar 2027 Rain in March-April decides the 2027 crop; FAO spring briefs [1] Tentative · Window
  2. Jun 2027 Harvest and first FAO estimates for 2027 [2] Tentative · Window
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

A short Maghreb crop raises demand for Canadian, French and Russian wheat [4]; a second good year cuts import bills in all three (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. GIEWS Country Brief: Morocco. FAO GIEWS · 8 Jul 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. GIEWS Country Brief: Algeria. FAO GIEWS · 30 Jun 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. GIEWS Country Brief: Tunisia. FAO GIEWS · 26 Aug 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data, total exports HS6 by country, 2025. Statistics Canada · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks