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Tunisia

Imports met 77.4% of Tunisia's wheat, maize, rice and barley use in 2024/25. The staple import bill was 1.88% of GDP; wheat made up 58.6% of it. Approved reading

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  • Region Middle East and North Africa · North Africa
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Tunisia in our readings

Tunisia is in 3 of our country readings; High in 2.

  • Food and fertiliser High
  • Europe's right turn High
  • Sovereign debt Medium

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to November 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Elevated
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Elevated
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Tunisia on the outlook map

Dates for Tunisia on the risk calendar

Risks that reach Tunisia

  • Food and fertiliser High

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Show all 3 risks that reach Tunisia
  • Europe's right turn High

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

  • Sovereign debt Medium

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

World risks for Tunisia

See Tunisia's 5 risks on a chart

Two of Tunisia's 5 risks share one score pair: Impact 3, Likelihood 6.

2Tunisia borrows more from itscentral bank than the 2027budget allowsTunisia's foreign currencyreserves fall under 90 days ofimports1234567891012345678910LowLowElevatedElevatedHighHighSevereSevereImpactLikelihood

Area is the count.

Solid arc: share under way. Dashed arc: share low confidence.

Tint and lines are the card counts smoothed, each line double the last. They follow the cards; they are not a score.

Every card is in the list below, with its scores.

SourceStrature world-risk cards, approved, as of 11 Nov 2026. Scores are judgements, not probabilities. The two scores are never multiplied.
Exhibit R-5 · TUNISIA · strature.net
Show all 5 world risks for Tunisia

All world risks that touch Tunisia

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Tunisia makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • 4 Dec 2026 FAO Food Price Index for November. Food and fertiliser
  • Monthly National Institute of Statistics foreign trade release: cereal imports. Food and fertiliser
  • Feb 2027 CBAM certificate purchases open on the EU central platform. Europe's right turn
  • Monthly Eurostat Comext: EU imports from Tunisia by product. Europe's right turn
  • Yearly EU tariff-quota notice for Tunisian olive oil. Europe's right turn
  • Nov-Dec 2026 Parliament examines the 2027 finance and budget bills, filed by the 15 Oct 2026 deadline. Sovereign debt

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Tunisia?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Tunisia on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Tunisia.

Food and fertiliser · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Food and fertiliser: what is at stake for Tunisia

Imports met 77.4% of Tunisia's wheat, maize, rice and barley use in 2024/25. The staple import bill was 1.88% of GDP; wheat made up 58.6% of it.

Theme band High

77.4%

of grain use met by imports (2024/25)

1.88%

of GDP, staple import bill (2024 prices)

2,110

kt of wheat imported (2024/25)

1.8

Mt wheat import need, 2026/27 (FAO)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Wheat imports were 2,110 kt against use of 2,900 kt in 2024/25. A price spike would land on the import bill, about US$0.97bn at 2024 prices.
  • The head of the state cereal office said in Mar 2025 that 50% of cereal imports came from Russia (press report). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Soft wheat is about 95% imported, on the same press report. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Maize for feed is almost all imported: 1,033 kt against use of 1,050 kt in 2024/25.

Opportunities

  • FAO puts the 2026 cereal crop at about 1.8 Mt, nearly 20% above the five-year average, and wheat imports for 2026/27 at about 1.8 Mt, around 8% below average.
  • Tunisia makes phosphate fertiliser: 178,310 t of P2O5 in 2024, against farm use of 50,900 t.
  • Food inflation eased to 6.6% in Jul 2026 from 8.2% in Apr and May (FAO).

Uncertainties

  • FAO expects imports to stay above 50% of wheat supply in 2026/27, even after the good harvest.
  • The Russian share rests on one press report about all cereals; no open table of wheat imports by origin was reached. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Fertiliser origins rest on an internal-only trade source and are not shown here.

What to watch

  • 6 Nov 2026FAO Food Price Index for October: the cereals and vegetable oils sub-indices.
  • 10 Nov 2026USDA WASDE and PSD update: Tunisia's wheat and barley balances for the new season.
  • 4 Dec 2026FAO Food Price Index for November.
  • MonthlyNational Institute of Statistics foreign trade release: cereal imports.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Cereal import dependenceDependence77.4% 2024/25Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley)HighHigh ≥70% · Medium 40–70% · Low 25–40%
Staple import billRevenue1.88% of GDP 2024/25 volumes, 2024 pricesStaple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDPLowHigh ≥4% of GDP · Medium 2–4% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Grain imports and use, 2024/25 (kt)
Wheat domestic consumption: 2,900 1000 t (2024/25)Wheat domestic cons…2,900Wheat imports: 2,110 1000 t (2024/25)Wheat imports2,110Corn (maize) domestic consumption: 1,050 1000 t (2024/25)Corn (maize) domest…1,050Corn (maize) imports: 1,033 1000 t (2024/25)Corn (maize) imports1,033Barley domestic consumption: 780 1000 t (2024/25)Barley domestic con…780Barley imports: 519 1000 t (2024/25)Barley imports519

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Wheat, Imports; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Wheat, Domestic Consumption; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Corn (maize), Imports; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Corn (maize), Domestic Consumption; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Barley, Imports; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Barley, Domestic Consumption.

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley): 77.4% (= 100 × sum of imports / sum of domestic consumption, four grains, capped at 100)
  • Staple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDP: 1.88% of GDP (= sum(PSD imports × Pink Sheet 2024 annual price) / GDP 2024)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 8 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

Europe's right turn · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Europe's right turn: what is at stake for Tunisia

Tunisia sells 71.0% of its goods exports to the EU, so EU trade rules set by member states and the European Parliament are its stake in Europe's right turn. High band.

Theme band High

71%

Share of goods exports sold to the EU27, 2024

EUR13.453bn

EU imports from Tunisia, EUR bn, 2025

EUR4.755bn

Electrical equipment sold to the EU, EUR bn, 2025

1.08%

CBAM-chapter goods sold to the EU, % of GDP, 2024 (upper bound)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • A market that took 71.0% of Tunisia's goods exports in 2024 runs on EU trade rules set by qualified majority and by the European Parliament.
  • Olive oil enters the EU duty-free only up to a yearly ceiling; Tunisia was reported in Jan 2026 to seek 100,000 t (estimate from press, Kapitalis). Estimate from press or commentary
  • EU purchases of fats and oils, mainly olive oil, fell to EUR 0.60bn in 2025 from EUR 0.93bn in 2024.
  • CBAM-chapter goods sold to the EU were 1.08% of GDP in 2024, just above the line; CBAM certificate purchases start in Feb 2027.

Opportunities

  • EU purchases of Tunisian electrical equipment rose to EUR 4.8bn in 2025 from EUR 4.1bn in 2024.
  • Total EU imports from Tunisia rose to EUR 13.5bn in 2025 from EUR 13.1bn in 2024.
  • Clothing remains a large line: EUR 1.54bn of woven and EUR 0.58bn of knitted clothing in 2025.

Uncertainties

  • The olive oil ceiling is reported as 57,600 t in one press source and 56,700 t in others; the official figure in Regulation (EU) 2016/1918 was not checked by Nov 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Tunisian citizens in EU states are a floor: 181,222 in 19 reporting states, 1.48% of the population, below the theme's line; France does not report.
  • No Eurostat figure for EU residents' remittances to Tunisia is on file; remittances from all sources were US$3.26bn in 2024.

What to watch

  • Feb 2027CBAM certificate purchases open on the EU central platform.
  • 18 Apr 2027French presidential election, first round; second round on 2 May 2027. Strature's world-risk card names this vote as the most likely route for the shift.
  • MonthlyEurostat Comext: EU imports from Tunisia by product.
  • YearlyEU tariff-quota notice for Tunisian olive oil.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Eu marketTrade71% 2024Share of goods exports sold to the EU27 (EU mirror imports / own exports)HighHigh ≥50% · Medium 33–50% · Low 20–33%
Climate car rulesTrade1.08% of GDP 2024EU imports of CBAM-chapter goods from the country, % of its GDPLowHigh (a) ≥4.0% of GDP or (b) ≥10% of GDP · Medium (a) ≥2.0% of GDP or (b) ≥5% of GDP · Low (a) ≥1.0% of GDP or (b) ≥2% of GDP
Climate car rules vehiclesTrade1.08% of GDP 2024EU imports of vehicles and parts (HS 87) from the country, % of its GDPBelow line
Nationals in euOther:migration1.48% of population 2024Citizens resident in EU states, % of home populationBelow lineHigh ≥10% · Medium 5–10% · Low 2–5%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

EU imports from Tunisia by product, 2025 (EUR bn)
EU27 imports of electrical machinery and equipment (HS 85) from the country: EUR4.755bn (2025)Electrical machinery and eq…4.75EU27 imports of clothing, not knitted (HS 62) from the country: EUR1.538bn (2025)Clothing, not knitted1.54EU27 imports of animal and vegetable fats and oils (HS 15, mainly olive oil) from the country: EUR0.601bn (2025)Animal and vegetable fats a…0.60

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Eurostat Comext DS-045409, EU trade since 1988 by HS2-4-6 and CN8 (reporter EU27, imports by origin, 2024-2025).

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Share of goods exports sold to the EU27 (EU mirror imports / own exports): 71% (= EU27 imports from the country (EUR) × ECB 2024 rate / merchandise exports (US$) × 100)
  • EU imports of CBAM-chapter goods from the country, % of its GDP: 1.08% of GDP (= CBAM-chapter imports (EUR) × ECB 2024 rate / GDP (US$) × 100)
  • EU imports of vehicles and parts (HS 87) from the country, % of its GDP: 1.08% of GDP (= HS 87 imports (EUR) × ECB 2024 rate / GDP (US$) × 100)
  • Citizens resident in EU states, % of home population: 1.48% of population (= citizens resident in reporting EU states / population × 100)

Eurostat data: © European Union, CC BY 4.0; shares and sums computed by Strature.

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

Sovereign debt · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Sovereign debt: what is at stake for Tunisia

Tunisia's external public principal due 2026-2028, US$6.95bn, equals 74.3% of its 2024 reserves, and debt service took 16.2% of export earnings in 2024: a medium debt burden.

Theme band Medium

74.3%

of 2024 reserves: external public principal due 2026-2028

16.2%

of export earnings paid to public external creditors (2024)

US$6.95bn

US$bn external public principal due 2026-2028

TND21.275bnest.

TND bn debt service in the draft 2027 budget (reported)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Principal of US$6.95bn falls due in 2026-2028, 74.3% of 2024 reserves; US$1.07bn of it is owed to bondholders.
  • Debt service took 16.2% of export earnings in 2024, US$3.41bn.
  • The draft 2027 budget plans central bank facilities of TND 9.8bn, after TND 11bn in the 2026 law (reported). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Interest took about 15.4% of revenue in the first half of 2026, on press-reported budget figures. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Fitch rates Tunisia B-, with a 2026 deficit of 6.4% of GDP and debt of about 85%, as reported. Estimate from press or commentary

Opportunities

  • The only outstanding eurobond was repaid in full in July 2026, as reported. Estimate from press or commentary
  • The draft 2027 budget puts debt service at TND 21.275bn, down 7.4% from TND 22.982bn expected in 2026 (reported). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Little rests on the IMF or China: IMF credit is 0.68% of GDP and creditors in China hold 0.1% of public external debt.

Uncertainties

  • The interest share rests on two press figures for half a year; no World Bank figure was found.
  • Debt service is put at 10.66% of GDP in 2027, against 12.44% in 2026, in a draft not yet voted (reported). Estimate from press or commentary
  • The reserves figure is for 2024; no newer World Bank figure was on file.

What to watch

  • Nov-Dec 2026Parliament examines the 2027 finance and budget bills, filed by the 15 Oct 2026 deadline.
  • 2027The draft budget puts domestic interest at TND 6.535bn and external interest at TND 1.433bn (reported).
  • 2027US$0.34bn of external bond principal falls due on the end-2024 schedule.
  • MonthlyMinistry of Finance budget execution: interest paid and revenue collected.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
External debt serviceCapital and finance16.2% of exports 2024Public and publicly guaranteed external debt service, % of exports of goods, services and primary incomeMediumHigh ≥21% · Medium 15–21% · Low 10–15%
Refinancing wallCapital and finance74.3% of reserves 2026-2028 vs reserves 2024External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reservesMediumHigh ≥100% · Medium 50–100% · Low 25–50%
Interest burdenRevenue15.4% of revenue Jan-Jun 2026 low confidenceInterest payments, % of revenueLowHigh ≥30% · Medium 20–30% · Low 10–20%
Imf exposureCapital and finance0.68% of GDP Nov 2026 credit vs GDP 2025IMF credit outstanding, % of GDPBelow lineHigh ≥5% of GDP · Medium 2–5% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP, or <1% of GDP but ≥US$1bn
China creditorDependence0.1% of PPG external debt 2024Share of public external debt owed to ChinaBelow lineHigh ≥33% · Medium 20–33% · Low 10–20%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

External public principal due 2026-2028 against reserves, US$bn
Projected principal repayments on public and publicly guaranteed external debt, 2026-2028 (all creditors): US$6.95bn (2026-2028 (projected on end-2024 stock))Principal due, all creditors, 2026-286.95Projected principal repayments to bondholders on public external debt, 2026-2028: US$1.07bn (2026-2028 (projected on end-2024 stock))Principal due to bondholders, 2026-281.07Total reserves including gold: US$9.34bn (2024)Total9.34

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: World Bank, International Debt Statistics (DT.AMT.DPPG.CD, counterpart World, projected); World Bank, World Development Indicators (FI.RES.TOTL.CD); World Bank, International Debt Statistics (DT.AMT.DPPG.CD, counterpart Bondholders, projected).

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reserves: 74.3% of reserves (= projected PPG principal 2026-2028 / total reserves × 100)
  • Interest payments, % of revenue: 15.4% of revenue (= interest / revenue × 100)
  • IMF credit outstanding, % of GDP: 0.68% of GDP (= IMF credit (SDR) × US$ per SDR / GDP × 100)
  • Share of public external debt owed to China: 0.1% of PPG external debt (= debt owed to China / PPG external debt × 100)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

ISO 3166-1 name: Tunisia (TUN). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

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Cite this page Strature, “Tunisia”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/tun/, 11 Nov 2026.

  • General research, not advice.
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