Sign in Get in touch
Your exposure · Country · Middle East and North Africa

Libya

Libya imports 94.9% of the cereals it eats (2024/25) and its staple bill is 2.36% of GDP. High on cereals, Medium on the bill; FAO puts 2026/27 cereal import needs at 3.3 Mt. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Libya?

Using this page
  1. Read the questions our briefs address, and any country reading.
  2. Filter the questions by domain, series or topic.
  3. Open a brief for its free summary sheet and executive read.
  • Region Middle East and North Africa · North Africa
  • Readings updated
Link to this page

Follow LibyaSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Your exposure

Libya in our readings

Libya is in 2 of our country readings; High in 2.

  • Food and fertiliser High
  • Europe's right turn High

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to November 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Elevated
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Libya on the outlook map

Dates for Libya on the risk calendar

Risks that reach Libya

  • Food and fertiliser High

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Show all 2 risks that reach Libya
  • Europe's right turn High

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

World risks for Libya

See Libya's 5 risks on a chart

Libya's five risks each hold a different score pair.

Libya splits again into tworival central bank governorsLibya's power grid collapsesacross two or more regionsagain1234567891012345678910LowLowElevatedElevatedHighHighSevereSevereImpactLikelihood

Area is the count.

Solid arc: share under way. Dashed arc: share low confidence.

Tint and lines are the card counts smoothed, each line double the last. They follow the cards; they are not a score.

Every card is in the list below, with its scores.

SourceStrature world-risk cards, approved, as of 11 Nov 2026. Scores are judgements, not probabilities. The two scores are never multiplied.
Exhibit R-5 · LIBYA · strature.net
Show all 5 world risks for Libya

All world risks that touch Libya

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Libya makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • 4 Dec 2026 FAO Food Price Index, the next monthly release. Food and fertiliser
  • Jun 2027 End of the 2026/27 marketing year that FAO's import requirement covers. Food and fertiliser
  • 1 Jan 2027 Start date in current law for the methane rules on oil and gas importers, unless the proposed delay is adopted. Europe's right turn
  • 18 Apr 2027 French presidential election, first round; the second round is on 2 May 2027. World-risk card rk-europe-right-turn names it as the main path to the shift. Europe's right turn
  • Monthly Eurostat Comext: EU fuel imports from Libya. Europe's right turn

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Libya?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Libya on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Libya.

Food and fertiliser · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Food and fertiliser: what is at stake for Libya

Libya imports 94.9% of the cereals it eats (2024/25) and its staple bill is 2.36% of GDP. High on cereals, Medium on the bill; FAO puts 2026/27 cereal import needs at 3.3 Mt.

Theme band High

94.9%

Cereal imports, % of cereal use, 2024/25

2.36%

Staple import bill, % of GDP (2024/25 volumes, 2024 prices)

3.3

Cereal import requirement, Mt, 2026/27 (FAO GIEWS)

1,819

Wheat imports, kt, 2024/25 (USDA PSD)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • FAO forecasts the 2026 cereal crop at about 150,000 t, nearly 20% below average, against import needs of 3.3 Mt in 2026/27.
  • Food inflation was about 18% year on year in May 2026, and a dinar about 15% weaker raised the cost of imported food (FAO).
  • Russia supplied 86% of 937 kt of wheat imports in July 2022-January 2023 (customs figures as reported by the press; estimate); no later split was found. Estimate from press or commentary
  • More than 85% of the goods used in Libya are imported (central bank), so a price spike would pass straight to the import bill.

Opportunities

  • Nitrogen is not a gap: Libya made 15,000 t of N fertiliser in 2024 against farm use of 13,700 t (FAOSTAT).
  • FAO sets the 2026/27 wheat import requirement at 1.5 Mt, about 12% above average, so the volume is estimated ahead of the season.

Uncertainties

  • Customs-based cereal imports were US$344.7m in 2024 (central bank), far below a bill priced on USDA volumes (about US$1.15bn); the coverage of the customs record is not stated.
  • The only wheat origin split found is a press report of customs data for July 2022-January 2023. Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • 6 Nov 2026FAO Food Price Index (cereals, vegetable oils).
  • 10 Nov 2026USDA WASDE and the PSD update of world grain trade.
  • 4 Dec 2026FAO Food Price Index, the next monthly release.
  • Jun 2027End of the 2026/27 marketing year that FAO's import requirement covers.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Cereal import dependenceDependence94.9% 2024/25Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley)HighHigh ≥70% · Medium 40–70% · Low 25–40%
Staple import billRevenue2.36% of GDP 2024/25 volumes, 2024 pricesStaple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDPMediumHigh ≥4% of GDP · Medium 2–4% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Libya's cereal imports, 2024/25 (kt, USDA PSD)
Wheat imports: 1,819 1000 t (2024/25)Wheat imports1,819Barley imports: 1,400 1000 t (2024/25)Barley imports1,400Corn (maize) imports: 920 1000 t (2024/25)Corn (maize) imports920Milled rice imports: 148 1000 t (2024/25)Milled rice imports148

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Wheat, Imports; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Barley, Imports; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Corn (maize), Imports; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Milled rice, Imports.

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley): 94.9% (= 100 × sum of imports / sum of domestic consumption, four grains, capped at 100)
  • Staple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDP: 2.36% of GDP (= sum(PSD imports × Pink Sheet 2024 annual price) / GDP 2024)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 8 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

Europe's right turn · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Europe's right turn: what is at stake for Libya

Libya sold 78.4% of its 2024 goods exports to the EU, 98.0% of it fuels. EU energy, climate and trade rules, set by EU votes, reach most of its export earnings.

Theme band High

78.4%

of goods exports sold to the EU27 (2024, mirror ratio)

98%

fuels share of EU imports from Libya (2024)

21.5%

of Libya's exports went to Italy (2024)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Mineral fuels were EUR 21,439.2m of EU imports from Libya in 2024, of which crude oil EUR 20,290.6m.
  • Italy took 21.5% of Libya's exports in 2024, US$6,895.9m, by the Central Bank of Libya's count.
  • Under the EU methane rules, importers were to show from 1 Jan 2027 that oil and gas contracts meet equivalent monitoring rules. A Commission proposal of 14 Oct 2026 would delay this by one year; such rules change with votes in the Council and Parliament. Estimate from press or commentary
  • EU imports from Libya fell from EUR 23,081.1m in 2023 to EUR 20,342.7m in 2025.

Opportunities

  • The proposed one-year delay to the EU methane rules for importers would postpone a compliance step for EU importers of Libyan oil and gas. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Sales are spread across several EU states: Germany took 16.6%, Greece 8.2% and Spain 8.2% of Libya's exports in 2024.

Uncertainties

  • The 78.4% compares EU imports by origin with a World Bank export total; the Central Bank of Libya counts US$32,102.1m of exports in 2024.
  • The methane proposal is not yet law; the final dates depend on the Council and Parliament. Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • 1 Jan 2027Start date in current law for the methane rules on oil and gas importers, unless the proposed delay is adopted.
  • 18 Apr 2027French presidential election, first round; the second round is on 2 May 2027. World-risk card rk-europe-right-turn names it as the main path to the shift.
  • MonthlyEurostat Comext: EU fuel imports from Libya.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Eu marketTrade78.4% 2024Share of goods exports sold to the EU27 (EU mirror imports / own exports)HighHigh ≥50% · Medium 33–50% · Low 20–33%
Climate car rulesTrade0.48% of GDP 2024EU imports of CBAM-chapter goods from the country, % of its GDPBelow lineHigh (a) ≥4.0% of GDP or (b) ≥10% of GDP · Medium (a) ≥2.0% of GDP or (b) ≥5% of GDP · Low (a) ≥1.0% of GDP or (b) ≥2% of GDP
Nationals in euOther:migration0.26% of population 2024Citizens resident in EU states, % of home populationBelow lineHigh ≥10% · Medium 5–10% · Low 2–5%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

EU27 goods imports from Libya, EUR m
EU27 goods imports from Libya, all products: EUR23,081.1m (2023)202323,081.1EU27 goods imports from Libya, all products: EUR21,875.9m (2024)202421,875.9EU27 goods imports from Libya, all products: EUR20,342.7m (2025)202520,342.7

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Eurostat Comext DS-045409, EU trade since 1988 by HS2-4-6 and CN8 (reporter EU27, imports, by origin).

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Share of goods exports sold to the EU27 (EU mirror imports / own exports): 78.4% (= EU27 imports from the country (EUR) × ECB 2024 rate / merchandise exports (US$) × 100)
  • Mineral fuels (HS 27) as a share of EU27 imports from Libya: 98% (= EU imports of HS 27 / EU imports, all products)
  • EU imports of CBAM-chapter goods from the country, % of its GDP: 0.48% of GDP (= CBAM-chapter imports (EUR) × ECB 2024 rate / GDP (US$) × 100)
  • Citizens resident in EU states, % of home population: 0.26% of population (= citizens resident in reporting EU states / population × 100)

Eurostat data: © European Union, CC BY 4.0; shares and sums computed by Strature.

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

ISO 3166-1 name: Libya (LBY). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Libya”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/lby/, 11 Nov 2026.

  • General research, not advice.
Ask about Libya

A question this page does not answer?

Suggest it for the series; if we take it up, the answer is published to everyone.

Is your company exposed in Libya? An exposure assessment of your own company, free. Request a free pilot

Suggest a question The method