Libya's power grid collapses across two or more regions again
The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, a grid collapse (total blackout) hits two or more of Libya's western, central, southern and eastern regions at once, as the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) or two sources report.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- A Tripoli restaurant owner told Reuters outages in Qasr Bin Ghashir can last up to 36 hours; causes cited include heat, ageing plant, gas shortfalls and fuel smuggling [2]
Why it matters
On 17 Aug 2026 Libya's grid collapsed across the west, centre and south, the second complete outage in the west and centre within 24 hours, and water pumping for major cities stopped with it. Demand passed 7,000 MW in July, and cuts ran on into September despite promises.
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: the 2027 summer peak; gas shortfalls unrepaired; RANE's view of recurring shortages. Brakes: the 150 MW Zawiya unit back on line; the utility chairman's promise that cuts would end. The sources lean towards it but are few: 6, not 7.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case a collapse across two regions. A collapse that takes in the west, as on 17 Aug 2026.
The other facts on file (6)
- Nationwide blackout in western, central and southern Libya after the Zawiya, Khoms and Ubari plants went offline, the second complete outage in the west and centre within 24 hours; Man-Made River wells and pumps stopped [1] (17 Aug 2026)
- Demand passed 7,000 MW on 1 Jul 2026 with cuts of more than eight hours a day in some areas (LANA) [2] (1 Jul 2026)
- GECOL's chairman said on 26 Aug cuts would end within 10-15 days; partial western blackout on 31 Aug; a 150 MW Zawiya unit reconnected on 4 Sep [2] (4 Sep 2026)
- RANE expects recurring summer electricity shortages in Tunisia and Libya over the next several years (view) [3] (21 Aug 2026)
- Tunisia's utility said rising demand in neighbouring countries blocked extra supply from Algeria and Libya [4] (17 Jul 2026)
- Libya's population was 7,381,023 in 2024 [5] (31 Dec 2024)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, a grid collapse (total blackout) hits two or more of Libya's western, central, southern and eastern regions at once, as the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) or two sources report.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Households and businessPower and, through the Man-Made River's pumps, water to cities stop [1]; firms fall back on generators [2].
- Oil and gasGas diverted to power plants competes with exports (Strature's view) [2].
- TunisiaTunisia cannot draw on Libyan power in a shortage [4].
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Patched
Repaired units carry the 2027 peak with local cuts only.
- S2
Rolling cuts
Long local outages, no total collapse.
- S3
Collapse
Plants trip in a heatwave and two or more regions go dark.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | No multi-region collapse reported by GECOL in July-August 2027 |
| S2 | LANA reports demand above 7,000 MW again |
| S3 | The Man-Made River Authority warns of water cuts |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jul 2027 Summer demand peak (demand passed 7,000 MW on 1 Jul 2026) [2] Tentative · Window
The other side
A grid crisis this visible favours new gas-fired and solar capacity and repairs to transmission lines (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Libya
- Tunisia
- Power cuts hit several Tunisian regions on three or more days in a month Shares a channel: The same summer shortages hit both, and neither can draw on the other.
- Fighting in Tripoli or Zawiya kills 10 or more people in a week Shares a channel: The Zawiya plant, one of those that went offline on 17 Aug 2026, sits in a contested western town.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Power grid collapses across southern, western and central Libya. APA (Xinhua) · 17 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Libya power cuts: Tripoli businesses. The Rio Times · 18 Sep 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Rolling blackouts spark protests across Tunisia and western Libya. RANE Worldview · 21 Aug 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- As heatwave intensifies, Tunisia resorts to rolling power cuts to avoid total blackout. The New Arab · 17 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Libya. World Bank WDI · 2024 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks