Sign in Get in touch
World risk · Energy and resources

Power cuts hit several Tunisian regions on three or more days in a month

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, power cuts of three hours or more hit two or more governorates on at least three days within one calendar month, as the national utility or two sources report.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Likelihood
6Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration3
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. 2027 draft budget: central bank financing facilities of TND 9.8bn, after TND 11.45bn expected for 2026 [3]
  2. Fuel support TND 2.427bn by end-June 2026; energy more than half of the trade deficit [4]

Why it matters

In July 2026 Tunisia's state utility STEG ran rolling power cuts because demand ran above what its plants could generate, and no extra power could come from Algeria or Libya. Thousands protested, and RANE expects summer shortages to recur for several years. The 2027 budget still leans on central bank financing.

Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: demand above generation with no import headroom; a named source expecting recurrence; tight public money. Brake: only the utility's load management. Every cited source leans towards the event but they are few, so 6, not 7.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case three days of cuts in two governorates in one month.

The other facts on file (2)
  • STEG ran rolling cuts to prevent a total blackout; demand more than 33% above normal, above generation since 12 Jul; cuts to last until the heatwave ends; no extra supply from Algeria or Libya [1] (17 Jul 2026)
  • Thousands protested against blackouts in Tunis, Zaghouan, Monastir and Sousse; RANE expects recurring summer electricity shortages in Tunisia and Libya over the next several years (view) [2] (21 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

TUNISIA11. Power cuts hit several Tunisian regions on three or more days in a month: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Power cuts hit severalTunisian regions on threeor more days in a monthLow impact · possibleTUNISIA SUMMER POWER CUTS0300 kmat 34°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
TUNISIA11. Power cuts hit several Tunisian regions on three or more days in a month: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Tunisia summerpower cutsTUNISIA SUMMER POWER CUTS0300 kmat 34°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, power cuts of three hours or more hit two or more governorates on at least three days within one calendar month, as the national utility or two sources report.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. BusinessCuts disrupt firms in peak hours [1][2].
  3. Public financeMore gas or power imports raise an energy bill already behind more than half the trade deficit [4].
  4. UnrestBlackouts brought protests in four cities in 2026 [2].

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Tunisia.

Sectors
Energy and pipelines
Goods
Refined fuels

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Mild summer

    Cuts are brief and local.

  2. S2

    Repeat of 2026

    A heatwave brings rolling cuts for days.

  3. S3

    Shortage spreads

    Cuts run beyond the heatwave.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No STEG load-shedding notice by end-August 2027
S2STEG announces cuts in June-July 2027
S3Central bank financing above the TND 9.8bn planned

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Jan 2027 2027 budget year opens with TND 9.8bn central bank financing planned [3] Tentative · Outside event
  2. Jul 2027 Summer demand peak (the 2026 cuts began in a mid-July heatwave) [1] Tentative · Window
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · TUNISIA · strature.net

The other side

The 2026 cuts [1] make the case for more solar, storage and grid links (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. As heatwave intensifies, Tunisia resorts to rolling power cuts to avoid total blackout. The New Arab · 17 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Rolling blackouts spark protests across Tunisia and western Libya. RANE Worldview · 21 Aug 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Tunisie : deux emprunts obligataires de 450 millions d'euros et 350 millions de dollars envisagés dans le projet de budget 2027. La Presse de Tunisie · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Exécution du budget 2026 et hypothèses 2027 : Les chiffres ne mentent pas, ils révèlent ce que les discours tentent d'adoucir. Webmanagercenter · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks