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World risk · Finance and markets

Tunisia borrows more from its central bank than the 2027 budget allows

The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, a supplementary finance law or Finance Ministry execution data shows central bank facilities for 2027 above the TND 9.8bn in the draft 2027 budget.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Draft 2027 budget: borrowing TND 26.722bn (19.845bn domestic, 6.877bn external); central bank facilities TND 9.8bn vs 11.45bn expected for 2026, 11bn in the 2026 law, 6.85bn in 2025; market and private placements TND 2.589bn incl. EUR 450m and US$350m issues; Afreximbank TND 1.5bn [1]
  2. Fitch affirmed B-, stable; 2026 deficit 6.4% of GDP; debt about 85%; 0.8-point rise in fuel subsidy costs; EUR 700m eurobond repaid in July 2026 [2]
  3. Fitch B-, stable; the only outstanding eurobond fully repaid in July 2026, largely thanks to interest-free central bank loans [3]

Why it matters

Tunisia's draft 2027 budget plans TND 9.8bn of central bank facilities, down from TND 11.45bn expected for 2026, which itself overran the TND 11bn in the 2026 law. Fitch kept the country at B- in September, with the 2026 deficit at 6.4% of GDP, wider on fuel subsidy costs. A second overrun is the question.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: fuel subsidy costs; untested foreign placements; the July eurobond repaid with central bank loans. Brakes: a lower planned draw; Afreximbank support. Two drivers with brakes holding. The figure may only appear after the window.

The other facts on file (2)
  • Personal remittances received US$3.26bn in 2024 [4] (2024)
  • Personal remittances received 6.34% of GDP in 2024 [5] (2024)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Tunisia borrows more from its central bank than the 2027 budget allows. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Tunisia borrows more from its central bank than the 2027 budget allowsImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Tunisia
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · TUNISIA · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, a supplementary finance law or Finance Ministry execution data shows central bank facilities for 2027 above the TND 9.8bn in the draft 2027 budget.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Prices and the dinarMore monetary financing adds to pressure on inflation and the dinar (Strature's view).
  3. EU partnersWeaker public finances weigh on EU-Tunisia migration and energy deals (Strature's view).
  4. Households abroadRemittances were US$3.26bn in 2024 [4]; a weaker dinar changes their value at home.

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Tunisia, Italy
Sectors
Banks and insurers
Goods
Refined fuels

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Plan holds

    External placements land and the draw stays at or under TND 9.8bn.

  2. S2

    Quiet overrun

    Subsidies and missed placements push the draw above plan.

  3. S3

    Rating pressure

    A wider deficit leads to a negative outlook.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The EUR 450m issue closes
S2A supplementary finance law in 2027
S3Fitch's next review of Tunisia

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · TUNISIA · strature.net

The other side

Tunisia repaid its last eurobond in July 2026 [2], and the 2027 draft plans a smaller central bank draw than 2026 [1]; a held plan would show the domestic financing model can step down (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Tunisie : deux emprunts obligataires de 450 millions d'euros et 350 millions de dollars envisagés dans le projet de budget 2027. La Presse de Tunisie · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Tunisie : Fitch maintient la note à B- mais les équilibres budgétaires restent fragiles. WMC (Webmanagercenter) · 8 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. Fitch maintient la note de la Tunisie à B- avec une perspective stable. La Presse de Tunisie · 8 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Personal remittances, received (current US$), BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT. World Bank WDI · 2024 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. Personal remittances, received (% of GDP), BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS. World Bank WDI · 2024 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review; scores unchanged · All risks