Algeria's pipeline gas to Italy and Spain falls by 10% or more year on year in Jan-Mar 2027
The test Algeria's pipeline gas deliveries to Italy (TransMed) and Spain (Medgaz) together in Jan-Mar 2027 are at least 10% lower than in Jan-Mar 2026, by ENTSOG or national grid data.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Italian trade daily, one unnamed source: some volumes held on the Tunisian side from early September 2026, no figure; Italy's energy ministry following the matter without confirming a lasting disruption [3]
Why it matters
Algeria became Europe's safety valve when the Gulf war cut Qatari LNG: Euronews reported its pipeline flows up 22% in January 2026 and rising through March, without naming a source. That high base, domestic demand growth and a reported hold on volumes in Tunisia make a fall in early 2027 possible; Italy and Spain both want more, not less.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the high early-2026 base after the emergency surge; domestic demand growth; a reported hold on volumes in Tunisia (one unnamed source, not confirmed by Italy's ministry). Brakes: Italy and Spain both pushing for more; new fields. Two cited drivers with brakes holding. The drivers rest on low-confidence figures.
The other facts on file (4)
- Italian Energy Ministry data cited by Bloomberg: TransMed flows about 20 bcm a year in recent years, roughly 2 bcm below 2022-2023 levels [5] (25 Mar 2026)
- Euronews (no named source): Algeria sent the EU 39-40 bcm in 2025, about 13-14% of EU gas imports; pipeline flows up 22% in January 2026 and rising through March; domestic demand up 3-4% a year. Akel: about 17% of Qatar's export capacity hit; 4-8 bcm possible increase. Spain discussed raising Medgaz up to 10% [1] (31 Mar 2026)
- Italy's prime minister visited Algiers seeking more gas; Algeria covers about 30% of Italy's needs [2] (25 Mar 2026)
- Algeria supplied 7.61% of Turkey's gas imports in 2025 [4] (2025)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Algeria's pipeline gas to Italy and Spain falls by 10% or more year on year in Jan-Mar 2027Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Algeria
How it spreads
Algeria's pipeline gas deliveries to Italy (TransMed) and Spain (Medgaz) together in Jan-Mar 2027 are at least 10% lower than in Jan-Mar 2026, by ENTSOG or national grid data.
Not under wayThree scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Flows hold
Contracts and new fields keep the first quarter near 2026.
- S2
Home demand bites
A cold Algerian winter keeps gas at home.
- S3
Transit dispute
Volumes held in Tunisia widen.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | December 2026 flows at or above December 2025 |
| S2 | A ministry statement on domestic priority |
| S3 | A second outlet or the Italian ministry confirms a TransMed hold |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jan 2027 Scored quarter begins (Jan-Mar 2027) [1] Declared · Window
Connected in Strature
- LNG
- Italy
- Spain
- Turkey
- A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea Shares a channel: A fall would deepen Europe's winter LNG need.
- Italy's Qatari LNG stays cut off into spring 2027 Shares a channel: Algerian pipeline gas offsets Italy's lost Qatari LNG.
- Algeria recalls its ambassador from, or imposes new trade curbs on, an EU member state Shares a channel: A political rupture with Rome or Madrid is a route to a cut.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Can Algeria's gas save the old continent from the Strait of Hormuz?. Euronews · 31 Mar 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- In search of gas supplies: Italian Prime Minister Meloni visits Algiers. Africanews · 25 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Gaz algérien : la livraison vers l'Italie freinée en Tunisie ?. Observ'Algérie · 21 Sep 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Natural Gas Market Development Report 2025. EPDK (Energy Market Regulatory Authority, Türkiye) · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Italy's Meloni Seeks to Boost Gas Flows From Algeria. Energy Connects (Bloomberg) · 25 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks