Sign in Get in touch
World risk · Finance and markets

Libya's central bank devalues the dinar by a tenth or more again

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the Central Bank of Libya sets an official selling rate at least 10% weaker than 6.4403 dinars per US dollar (above 7.08), in one decision or cumulatively.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth4
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Official US dollar selling rate 6.4334 on 3 Nov 2026 [4]
  2. The central bank named Abukhzam as governor, meeting the head of the Presidential Council [5]
  3. Eastern House approved the governor's resignation and backed Fowzi Abukhzam as interim governor; militants forced their way into the central bank on 22 Oct [3]
  4. Oil revenue about 90% of state income; US$839m of a US$1.2bn transfer unaccounted for [3]
  5. UN mission warned that pressure on the bank to finance rising spending could worsen exchange-rate pressure, inflation and reserve loss [6]
  6. Official selling rate 6.4403 on 15 Oct 2026; street quotes 10.165-10.30, about 58-60% higher [1]

Why it matters

The Central Bank of Libya devalued the dinar by 13.3% in April 2025 and by 14.7% in January 2026, citing political division and lower oil revenue. Street dollars cost about 60% more than the official rate in October 2026, and the bank changed governor in a contested way that month. A third cut of a tenth or more is an open question.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: the street premium; the governor dispute; the UN mission's warning on spending pressure. Brakes: a governor now acting and received by the Presidential Council; strong crude output.

The other facts on file (1)
  • Devaluation of 13.3% to 5.5677 per US dollar in April 2025 and of 14.7% to 6.3759 in January 2026, citing political division, falling oil revenue, no unified budget and rising spending [2] (19 Jan 2026)

Where it sits

LIBYATUNISIA11. Libya's central bank devalues the dinar by a tenth or more again: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Libya's central bankdevalues the dinarby a tenth or more againElevated impact · possibleLIBYA DEVALUES DINAR AGAIN0500 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
LIBYA11. Libya's central bank devalues the dinar by a tenth or more again: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Libya devaluesdinar againLIBYA DEVALUES DINAR AGAIN0500 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the Central Bank of Libya sets an official selling rate at least 10% weaker than 6.4403 dinars per US dollar (above 7.08), in one decision or cumulatively.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. PricesImports cost more in dinars [2]; wages lose value against the dollar.
  3. ReservesThe UN mission links spending pressure to inflation and reserve loss [6].

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Libya.

Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Hold

    The rate stays near 6.44.

  2. S2

    Third cut

    Budget gaps and the street premium force another step.

  3. S3

    Split bank

    Rival governors set rival rates.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Both rival chambers back one governor
S2The street rate stays above 10 into 2027
S3Two officials claim the post

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · LIBYA · strature.net

The other side

A unified budget and one governor could let the bank narrow the street premium [1][6] without a further cut (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Libyan dinar parallel market above 10 per dollar. The Rio Times · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Libya devalues dinar by 14.7pc. Business Recorder (Reuters) · 19 Jan 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. The compromise that held Libya's central bank together unravels as Naji Issa tenders his resignation. Enterprise MENA+ · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Exchange rates. Central Bank of Libya · 3 Nov 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. CBL Governor Meets President of the Presidential Council to Discuss Economic and Financial Developments. Central Bank of Libya · 3 Nov 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  6. UNSMIL underscores the importance of safeguarding the integrity and independence of the Central Bank of Libya. United Nations Support Mission in Libya · 23 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks