Sign in Get in touch
World risk · Finance and markets

Tunisia's foreign currency reserves fall under 90 days of imports

The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, the Central Bank of Tunisia's published net foreign assets cover fewer than 90 days of imports on any reported date.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Likelihood
6Elevated rising this month

Likelihood ↑ 3 Nov 2026: import cover fell to 91 days, from 93 on 30 Sep 2026 (central bank) [1][2].

Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Net foreign assets TND 24,049.2m, 91 days of imports (provisional) on 3 Nov 2026; 92 days the day before; 104 days (TND 24,422.8m) a year earlier [1]
  2. 2027 draft budget: debt service TND 21.275bn, including external principal TND 6.484bn and external interest TND 1.433bn [4]
  3. 2027 draft budget: TND 9.8bn of central bank financing and two bond issues of EUR 450m and US$350m planned [6]
  4. Cover 93 days (TND 23,843m) on 30 Sep and 92 days (TND 23,645m) on 2 Oct 2026 [2]

Why it matters

The Central Bank of Tunisia's net foreign assets covered 91 days of imports on 3 Nov 2026, against 104 days a year earlier. Tunisia repaid its last eurobond in July 2026, helped by central bank loans, and its 2027 budget still has external debt to pay. One more day of decline puts cover under 90 days.

Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: a falling trend through 2026; external debt service in 2027 and no eurobond left after July 2026. Brakes: tourism and remittance inflows; import compression.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case one reading under 90 days.

The other facts on file (2)
  • Cover 97 days (TND 24.53bn) on 3 Jul 2026, three days less than a year earlier [3] (3 Jul 2026)
  • Fitch affirmed B- (8 Sep 2026); the last eurobond (EUR 700m) was repaid in July 2026, notably with central bank loans [5] (8 Sep 2026)

Where it sits

TUNISIA11. Tunisia's foreign currency reserves fall under 90 days of imports: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Tunisia's foreign currencyreserves fall under 90 daysof importsLow impact · possibleTUNISIA RESERVES UNDER 90 DAYS0300 kmat 34°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
TUNISIA11. Tunisia's foreign currency reserves fall under 90 days of imports: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Tunisia reservesunder 90 daysTUNISIA RESERVES UNDER 90 DAYS0300 kmat 34°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, the Central Bank of Tunisia's published net foreign assets cover fewer than 90 days of imports on any reported date.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. ImportsThinner cover tightens the room to pay for fuel, grain and inputs [1][4].
  3. FundingA reading under 90 days would make the planned EUR 450m and US$350m bond issues harder to place (Strature's view) [6].
  4. EuropeItaly and the EU are Tunisia's main trade partners; an import squeeze would reach their exporters (Strature's view).

Sectors 2

  • Banks and insurers
  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 2

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Tunisia, Italy.

Sectors
Banks and insurers, Energy and pipelines

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Inflows refill

    Tourism and remittances lift cover above 95 days.

  2. S2

    Hover at the line

    Cover moves between 88 and 95 days.

  3. S3

    Slide

    External payments and energy bills pull cover well below 90 days.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The central bank shows 95 days or more by end-August 2027
S2A reading of 90 days or less in the central bank's daily table
S3The 2027 bond issues are delayed

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Jan 2027 2027 budget year opens with TND 21.275bn of debt service [4] Tentative · Outside event
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · TUNISIA · strature.net

The other side

Lower energy prices, a strong tourist season or a new funding deal would lift cover and ease the 2027 bond issues [6] (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Indicateurs monétaires et financiers. Banque centrale de Tunisie · 3 Nov 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  2. Les réserves en devises couvrent 92 jours d'importation. La Presse de Tunisie · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  3. BCT - Les réserves en devises à 97 jours d'importation au 3 juillet 2026. La Presse (AllAfrica) · 3 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  4. Tunisie : le service de la dette publique devrait baisser de 7,4% en 2027. La Presse de Tunisie · 29 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  5. Fitch maintient la note de la Tunisie à B- avec une perspective stable. La Presse de Tunisie · 8 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  6. Tunisie : deux emprunts obligataires de 450 millions d'euros et 350 millions de dollars envisagés dans le projet de budget 2027. La Presse de Tunisie · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026

Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks