The Gabès phosphate chemical units stop for two weeks or more
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the state phosphate chemical units at Gabès stop production for 14 days in a row or more because of a court order, a government decision, a strike or a blockade, as the operator, the ministry or two sources report.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Residents of Gabès have campaigned since April 2025 for the state phosphate chemical units on their coast to close; a local collective says gas leaks in October 2025 caused more than 300 cases of asphyxia. A court refused to stop the units on 26 Feb 2026, and a 2025 cabinet plan is to double phosphate processing. A two-week halt would need a court, a ministry or a blockade to break that line.
Why Likelihood 3 Driver: the campaign and a planned appeal. Blocker in force: the Gabès court refused to stop the units on 26 Feb 2026 and the cabinet's 2025 plan backs the plant. One live driver held by a strong blocker = 3.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case a 14-day halt.
The other facts on file (5)
- Protests from April 2025 in Tunis and from 23 May 2025 in Gabès; peak in October 2025 after gas leaks that the Stop Pollution collective says caused more than 300 asphyxia cases among pupils and miners [1] (26 Feb 2026)
- Gabès court of first instance, in urgent proceedings brought by the regional bar, refused to stop the polluting units for lack of proof of harm [1] (26 Feb 2026)
- Cabinet on 5 Mar 2025 adopted plans to double phosphate processing and add green hydrogen and ammonia [1] (5 Mar 2025)
- Stop Pollution called protests in Tunis and Gabès for 5-6 Jun 2026; its lawyers preparing an appeal [2] (3 Jun 2026)
- An MP put the state chemical group's cumulative losses at TND 1.8bn at end-2025 and its investment need at about TND 8bn [3] (29 Jul 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the state phosphate chemical units at Gabès stop production for 14 days in a row or more because of a court order, a government decision, a strike or a blockade, as the operator, the ministry or two sources report.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- ExportsPhosphoric acid and fertiliser shipments from Gabès stop for the halt.
- Public financeA loss-making state group [3] loses more revenue.
Sectors 2
- Mining and metals
- Agriculture and food
Countries 1
- Tunisia primary
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Tunisia.
- Sectors
- Mining and metals, Agriculture and food
- Goods
- Phosphoric acid, Phosphate fertilisers
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Status quo
Protests go on; the units run.
- S2
Court-ordered stop
An appeal or new case orders a halt.
- S3
Blockade or strike
A new leak brings a blockade for weeks.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | An appeal court upholds the February ruling |
| S2 | An appeal hearing date |
| S3 | A new mass asphyxia report |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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The other side
The cabinet's plan for green hydrogen and ammonia [1] could bring cleaner units if the old ones are moved, as decided in 2017 (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Tunisia
- Morocco's phosphate fertiliser industry cuts output by a fifth or more for a quarter again Shares a channel: The same phosphate fertiliser market; Morocco is the larger Maghreb producer.
Sources
3 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Tunisie: GCT de Gabès - Rejet de la demande d'arrêt des unités polluantes. La Presse (Tunis), via allAfrica · 26 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Stop pollution : deux journées de protestation annoncées à Tunis et à Gabès les 5 et 6 juin. Business News · 3 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- 1,8 milliard de dinars de pertes au GCT : Mohamed Ali Fenira réclame un plan de sauvetage d'urgence (Vidéo). Tunisie Numérique · 29 Jul 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks