Morocco's phosphate fertiliser industry cuts output by a fifth or more for a quarter again
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Morocco's phosphate fertiliser producers announce or report a cut of 20% or more in quarterly output, citing sulphur or ammonia supply.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
In the second quarter of 2026 Morocco's main phosphate fertiliser producer cut output by around 30% as sulphur costs rose after the Hormuz closure; it was returning to full output by the end of June, making more of a low-sulphur product. A repeat needs a new sulphur or ammonia shock. Fertiliser prices have eased since April.
Why Likelihood 3 Push: Hormuz traffic still below pre-war levels in June. Brakes: full output restored by end-June, the shift to low-sulphur TSP, fertiliser prices down from the April peak. One driver with a strong blocker.
The other facts on file (3)
- Output cut by around 30% in Q2 2026 after maintenance was brought forward as sulphur costs rose; returning to full production by end-June; TSP 65% of fertiliser volumes; 25 vessels crossed Hormuz on 18 Jun, far below pre-war averages (AFP) [1] (19 Jun 2026)
- Exports of phosphates and derivatives MAD 99.8bn in 2025, up 14.6% (Office des Changes) [2] (1 Feb 2026)
- Exports of phosphates and derivatives MAD 99.8bn in 2025, up 14.6% (Office des Changes) [3] (2 Feb 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Morocco's phosphate fertiliser industry cuts output by a fifth or more for a quarter againImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Morocco
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Morocco's phosphate fertiliser producers announce or report a cut of 20% or more in quarterly output, citing sulphur or ammonia supply.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Farm costsA cut by a leading exporter would tighten phosphate supply for the next crop season (Strature's view); Brazil and Africa are named as TSP markets [1].
- Morocco's exportsA fifth of one quarter's exports is about MAD 5bn of MAD 99.8bn a year, about US$0.5bn at Bank Al-Maghrib's rate of MAD 9.682 per dollar on 30 Sep 2026 (Strature's calculation from [2] and [5]).
- Sulphur demandA cut citing sulphur means Gulf supply is short again.
Sectors 2
- Agriculture and food
- Mining and metals
Straits 1
Countries 5
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Morocco, Brazil, India, Ethiopia, United States
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food, Mining and metals
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
- Companies
- OCP
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Low-sulphur shift holds
TSP and stocks absorb a new price rise.
- S2
Second squeeze
A new Gulf shock lifts sulphur and forces maintenance forward again.
- S3
Ammonia shock
Ammonia, not sulphur, binds and cuts DAP lines.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Monthly fertiliser prices stay below the April 2026 peak |
| S2 | Hormuz transits fall back from June 2026 levels |
| S3 | A producer statement citing ammonia supply |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Next World Bank Pink Sheet monthly update [4] Tentative · Outside event
- Feb 2027 Morocco's 2026 export figures (Office des Changes) [2] Tentative · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Sulphur
- Urea and nitrogen fertilisers
- Strait of Hormuz
- Morocco
- Brazil
- India
- Ethiopia
- United States
- Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring planting Driven by: The same Gulf fertiliser shock drives sulphur and ammonia costs.
- A new sulphur squeeze cuts Indonesia's battery-nickel output Shares a channel: Both industries cut output when Gulf sulphur is short.
- Brazil's farmers take a tenth less fertiliser in 2026 Shares a channel: Brazil is a named TSP market.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Morocco's OCP shifts to low-sulphur fertiliser, resumes full output. Hespress English · 19 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Phosphates et dérivés : près de 100 MMDH d'exportations en 2025. Hespress FR · 1 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Phosphates et dérivés : les exportations atteignent 99,8 Mds de DH en 2025. Finances News Hebdo · 2 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly prices and indices. World Bank · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Dirham sous pression : l'euro franchit le seuil des 11 DH. Boursenews · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks