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World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

The US duty on non-CAFTA Nicaraguan goods rises to 10% on 1 Jan 2027 and stays through 1 Feb 2027

The test The US Section 301 duty on Nicaraguan goods not originating under CAFTA-DR rises to 10% on 1 Jan 2027 and remains at 10% or more through 1 Feb 2027.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
8High steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

The US Trade Representative found in 2025 that Nicaragua's labour, human-rights and rule-of-law practices burden US commerce, and chose a duty phased in on Nicaraguan goods that do not originate under CAFTA-DR: zero in 2026, 10% from 1 Jan 2027, 15% from 1 Jan 2028. The schedule is in force by notice; USTR may change it only if Nicaragua shows a lack of progress. Nicaragua also pays the 12.5% forced-labour tariff since 24 Jul 2026.

Why Likelihood 8 Brakes: a clause lets USTR modify rates; about half of comments opposed.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case: a 10% duty on non-CAFTA goods for a month or more.

The other facts on file (5)
  • Investigation opened 13 Dec 2024; determination 23 Oct 2025 with options up to 100% duties; notice of action 12 Dec 2025; notice of implementation 29 Dec 2025 [1] (29 Dec 2025)
  • Duty on non-CAFTA-originating goods: 0% from 1 Jan 2026, 10% from 1 Jan 2027, 15% from 1 Jan 2028; may be modified for lack of progress; 2,006 comments, about half opposed [2] (12 Dec 2025)
  • Nicaragua in the 12.5% tier of the forced-labour Section 301 tariff from 24 Jul 2026 [3] (28 Jul 2026)
  • EO 14389 ended IEEPA duties; Section 301 duties unaffected [4] (25 Feb 2026)
  • Canada imported C$1.42bn from Nicaragua in 2025, 64% gold (HS 7108) [5] (2025)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

The US duty on non-CAFTA Nicaraguan goods rises to 10% on 1 Jan 2027 and stays through 1 Feb 2027. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 8 of 10, High.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. The US duty on non-CAFTA Nicaraguan goods rises to 10% on 1 Jan 2027 and stays through 1 Feb 2027Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 8 of 10, High. · Nicaragua
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · NICARAGUA · strature.net

How it spreads

If

The US Section 301 duty on Nicaraguan goods not originating under CAFTA-DR rises to 10% on 1 Jan 2027 and remains at 10% or more through 1 Feb 2027.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. TradeA 10% charge on Nicaraguan goods that do not qualify under CAFTA-DR rules of origin [2].
  3. Supply chainsApparel and food makers prove CAFTA origin or pay (Strature's view).

Goods 1

  • Gold

Sectors 1

  • Agriculture and food

Countries 3

Who is exposed

Countries
Nicaragua, United States, Canada
Sectors
Agriculture and food
Goods
Gold

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Step on schedule

    10% applies on 1 Jan 2027, 15% a year later.

  2. S2

    Pause

    USTR delays the step after talks.

  3. S3

    Escalation

    USTR suspends CAFTA-DR benefits, an option it considered.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1CBP guidance on the new rate in December 2026
S2A Federal Register notice modifying the action
S3A new USTR request for comments on Nicaragua

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 1 Jan 2027 US Section 301 duty on non-CAFTA Nicaraguan goods rises to 10% [2] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 1 Feb 2027 End of the scored window [2] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  3. 1 Jan 2028 Duty rises to 15% [2] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · NICARAGUA · strature.net

The other side

CAFTA-originating goods stay outside the duty, so firms that source inside the region keep their access (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Federal Register search results, USTR notices on Nicaragua (2024-29422, 2025-19635, 2025-22690, 2025-23892). Federal Register · 29 Dec 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. U.S. to Increase Tariffs on Imports from Nicaragua in 2027. Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg · 12 Dec 2025 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. Notice of Actions in Section 301 Investigations of Acts, Policies, and Practices of Various Economies (forced labor), FR 2026-15181. USTR, Federal Register · 28 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Executive Order 14389, Ending Certain Tariff Actions. The White House, Federal Register · 25 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. Canadian International Merchandise Trade, imports 2025 (via Strature_Data QI-e7b65747dbfd). Statistics Canada · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks