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World risk · Energy and resources

The Dominican grid suffers another general blackout

The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the state transmission company (ETED) or the energy ministry reports a general failure of the national interconnected system (SENI) that cuts power to most provinces on the grid.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth5
Duration1
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

The Dominican Republic's national grid failed in full twice in about three months, on 11 Nov 2025 and on 23 Feb 2026. No fix to the transmission weak point that tripped in February has been reported. A third general failure inside a year is a live risk for the Caribbean's largest tourism and free-zone economy.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: two failures in three months; one line switch tripped the system; frequent cuts. Brakes: no source leans towards a third event; faster restoration in February.

The other facts on file (5)
  • ETED reported a major failure of the SENI on 23 Feb 2026; large parts of the country including Santo Domingo lost power; the mid-November blackout lasted about five hours and reached Punta Cana; cuts can last up to 10 hours [1] (23 Feb 2026)
  • Generation reached zero at 11:12 on 23 Feb 2026 per SIE monitoring; the 11 Nov 2025 failure followed sudden shutdowns of plants at San Pedro de Macorís and Quisqueya [2] (23 Feb 2026)
  • Minister Joel Santos: a transmission line switch tripped and put the system in protection mode; nearly 30% of capacity back by mid-afternoon; hospitals, water, transit and airports on backup; November blackout put down to human error in line maintenance [3] (23 Feb 2026)
  • AP headline: second massive blackout in three months [4] (24 Feb 2026)
  • Population of the Dominican Republic about 11.5 million (2025) [5] (2025)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

The Dominican grid suffers another general blackout. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. The Dominican grid suffers another general blackoutImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Dominican Republic
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the state transmission company (ETED) or the energy ministry reports a general failure of the national interconnected system (SENI) that cuts power to most provinces on the grid.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Daily life and transportMetro stopped and traffic jammed in November 2025 [1]; public transport interrupted and businesses closed in February 2026 [3].
  3. Tourism and free zonesThe November failure reached Punta Cana; no loss figure sourced.

Sectors 2

  • Energy and pipelines
  • Ports and logistics

Countries 1

  • Dominican Republic primary

Who is exposed

Countries
Dominican Republic
Sectors
Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Grid holds

    Only local cuts.

  2. S2

    Third general failure

    A trip on a main line cascades again.

  3. S3

    Storm-driven failure

    A hurricane in the 2027 season takes down transmission.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1ETED publishes a final cause report and a protection upgrade
S2A fresh report of plants tripping together, as on 11 Nov 2025
S3A named storm forecast to cross Hispaniola, June-November 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · strature.net

The other side

A faster restoration (nearly 30% of capacity within hours in February [3]) and backup power at hospitals and airports [3] limit the damage of each event (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Dominican Republic hit by major blackouts (AFP). Jamaica Observer · 23 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Apagón general de hoy es el segundo desde el 11 de noviembre de 2025. elDinero · 23 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. República Dominicana enfrenta apagón nacional por segunda vez en tres meses (AP). Cadena 3 · 23 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. 2026 in the Dominican Republic. Wikipedia · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. Population, total: Dominican Republic (SP.POP.TOTL). World Bank · 2025 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks