Cuba's national grid collapses nationwide again
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Cuba's energy ministry reports a total collapse of the national electric grid (SEN).
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Total grid collapse and nationwide blackout on 18 Sep 2026; about 9 million people; strain from fuel shortages, ageing plants and a US-imposed oil blockade [1]
Why it matters
Cuba's grid has failed in full again and again in 2026: three times in March alone, a sixth time by early August, and again on 18 Sep. The island produces barely 40% of the fuel it needs, and US measures since January have cut its oil supply. Only a clear change in fuel supply would stop another collapse within a year.
Why Likelihood 8 Each collapse is a separate event, so not under way. Pushes: repeated collapses; domestic fuel output far short of need; US measures in force. Brakes: talks confirmed in March; a Russian crude delivery.
The other facts on file (6)
- Third nationwide collapse of March on 21 Mar 2026 after a Nuevitas unit trip; Cuba produces barely 40% of its fuel; no foreign oil for three months; flights cut [2] (22 Mar 2026)
- Sixth nationwide grid collapse of 2026 (headline) [3] (3 Aug 2026)
- EO 14380 declared a national emergency over Cuba and allowed duties on oil suppliers [4] (29 Jan 2026)
- EO 14389 ended the IEEPA duties of EO 14380 [5] (20 Feb 2026)
- EO 14404 allows blocking of persons in Cuba's energy, defence, mining, financial and security sectors and sanctions on foreign financial institutions [6] (1 May 2026)
- Energy ministry said on 14 May 2026 Cuba had run out of oil and diesel; talks with the US confirmed 13 Mar 2026 [7] (Jun 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Cuba's national grid collapses nationwide againImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 8 of 10, High. · Cuba
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Cuba's energy ministry reports a total collapse of the national electric grid (SEN).
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Daily lifeEach collapse cuts power and water across the island and damages household appliances [2].
- Tourism and air linksFuel shortages have led airlines to suspend or cut flights.
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Repeated collapses
Fuel stays short and collapses recur.
- S2
Fuel relief
New suppliers or eased US measures restore imports.
- S3
Patchwork grid
Local microsystems keep vital centres up while the national grid stays fragile.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The ministry's daily generation deficit reports |
| S2 | A tanker arrival reported by officials, or a change to EO 14404 |
| S3 | Officials announcing new generation capacity |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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The other side
A change in fuel supply, through talks with Washington or new suppliers, would quickly cut the risk; Havana and Washington confirmed talks in March 2026 [7].
Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- Cuba
- The US revokes or suspends its 2026 Cuba sanctions order, or ends the Cuba emergency Shares a channel: US measures on Cuba's energy sector shape its fuel supply.
- Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from Canada Shares a channel: Venezuelan crude flows were redirected after the change of power in Caracas, which halted shipments to Cuba.
- The Dominican grid suffers another general blackout Shares a channel: The same channel, a national grid failure in a Caribbean tourism economy.
Sources
7 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Cuba energy grid suffers nationwide collapse (Reuters). CP24 · 18 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Cuba begins to restore power after third nationwide collapse in a month (AP). APR · 22 Mar 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Cuba begins restoring power after sixth nationwide electrical grid collapse of 2026 (AP). Local10 · 3 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Executive Order 14380, Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba. Federal Register · 3 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Executive Order 14389, Ending Certain Tariff Actions. Federal Register · 25 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Executive Order 14404, Imposing Sanctions on Those Responsible for Repression in Cuba and for Threats to United States National Security and Foreign Policy. Federal Register · 7 May 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- 2026 Cuban crisis. Wikipedia · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks