The US revokes or suspends its 2026 Cuba sanctions order, or ends the Cuba emergency
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the US president revokes or suspends Executive Order 14404 of 1 May 2026, or the national emergency declared in Executive Order 14380 of 29 Jan 2026 ends, by termination or by lapse for want of a continuation notice.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
In 2026 Washington declared a national emergency over Cuba, briefly threatened duties on its oil suppliers, and then, on 1 May, authorised sanctions on anyone operating in Cuba's energy, mining, defence, financial and security sectors. Talks opened in March and Havana freed prisoners, but the US widened its measures afterwards. A reversal within a year would need a deal that no source reports.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: talks confirmed in March and a large prisoner release; the US named its price for lifting sanctions. Brakes: escalation since May; no talks reported after June.
The other facts on file (5)
- EO 14380 declared a national emergency over Cuba and allowed duties on countries supplying it oil [1] (29 Jan 2026)
- EO 14389 ended the IEEPA duties of EO 14380; emergencies not ended [2] (20 Feb 2026)
- EO 14404 allows blocking of persons in Cuba's energy, defence, metals and mining, financial and security sectors and sanctions on foreign financial institutions; no end date [3] (1 May 2026)
- Talks confirmed 13 Mar 2026; more than 2,000 prisoners released 3 Apr; Treasury licence 25 Feb for Venezuelan oil resale to Cuba's private sector; June warning on card payments [4] (Jun 2026)
- The US demands release of political prisoners and political and economic opening in exchange for lifting sanctions [5] (22 Mar 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- The US revokes or suspends its 2026 Cuba sanctions order, or ends the Cuba emergencyImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Cuba
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the US president revokes or suspends Executive Order 14404 of 1 May 2026, or the national emergency declared in Executive Order 14380 of 29 Jan 2026 ends, by termination or by lapse for want of a continuation notice.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced; an easing would be a gain.
- EnergyLifting the sector sanctions would let foreign suppliers and banks deal with Cuba's energy sector again.
- Banks and paymentsForeign banks would lose the risk of losing US correspondent accounts over Cuba business.
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Measures stay
EO 14404 stays and designations grow.
- S2
Deal
Talks resume and a prisoner release and reform package is met by suspension.
- S3
Partial relief
Licences ease specific trade while the order stands, which does not meet the event.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | New Treasury designations under EO 14404 |
| S2 | A joint statement on talks |
| S3 | A new general licence like that of 25 Feb 2026 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 30 Dec 2026 30-day test: is a continuation notice for the EO 14380 emergency published or on the table? [7] Declared · Strature date
- 29 Jan 2027 First anniversary of the EO 14380 emergency; it lapses unless continued [7] Declared · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [3] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
Eased sanctions would reopen Cuba's energy sector and tourism to foreign firms and visitors; Canadian travellers are a main market (figure not sourced).
Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- Cuba
- United States
- Mexico
- Venezuela
- Russia
- Cuba's national grid collapses nationwide again Shares a channel: US measures on Cuba's energy sector shape the fuel supply behind the collapses.
Sources
7 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Executive Order 14380, Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba. Federal Register · 3 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Executive Order 14389, Ending Certain Tariff Actions. Federal Register · 25 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Executive Order 14404, Imposing Sanctions on Those Responsible for Repression in Cuba and for Threats to United States National Security and Foreign Policy. Federal Register · 7 May 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- 2026 Cuban crisis. Wikipedia · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Cuba begins to restore power after third nationwide collapse in a month (AP). APR · 22 Mar 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Cuba energy grid suffers nationwide collapse (Reuters). CP24 · 18 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- 50 U.S. Code 1622, National emergencies (subsection (d), automatic termination). Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks