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World risk · Energy and resources

Qatar's first new North Field East LNG train is not producing by mid-2027

The test By 30 Jun 2027, no LNG has been produced from the first North Field East train, as QatarEnergy states or two independent sources report; the event is judged on that date.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration4
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Two people aware of the plans (Reuters): first train ready to start operation in November; LNG output expected in the first quarter of 2027; QatarEnergy did not comment [6]
  2. Reuters: QatarEnergy expects the first North Field East train to start production in the first half of 2027, more trains in 2027 depending on the strait; chief executive: equipment cannot reach Qatar; North Field South in 2028 [2]

Why it matters

North Field East is the first phase of Qatar's plan to lift LNG capacity from 77 to 126 Mtpa; in May 2025 QatarEnergy said it would start in mid-2026. After the war began, the first train moved to the first half of 2027, and expansion equipment still could not reach Qatar through the Strait of Hormuz. Two people told Reuters in October that the train would be ready in November, with LNG output in the first quarter of 2027.

Why Likelihood 4 A not-by-a-date event, judged on 30 Jun 2027. First LNG on time is the base case of the company and of the October Reuters report, which gives 4-5. Pushes: equipment blocked by the strait; one slip already, from mid-2026.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case the first train starts some months after 30 Jun 2027.

The other facts on file (4)
  • QatarEnergy: North Field East to begin production in mid-2026; capacity to 126 Mtpa by 2027 from 77 Mtpa [1] (21 May 2025)
  • QatarEnergy chief executive to Reuters: two existing LNG trains, 17% of export capacity, damaged in March and out for three to five years [3] (19 Mar 2026)
  • Fitch: the war has had only a small impact on the first phase; substantial capacity rise from 2027 depending on the strait; return to budget surplus in 2027 [4] (4 Sep 2026)
  • FIBA secretary general: Qatar not affected by the hostilities since 1 April [5] (5 Jun 2026)

Where it sits

UAEQATAR11. Qatar's first new North Field East LNG train is not producing by mid-2027: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Qatar LNG expansionslipsElevated impact · possibleQATAR LNG EXPANSION SLIPS0200 kmat 25°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
UAEQATAR11. Qatar's first new North Field East LNG train is not producing by mid-2027: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Qatar LNGexpansion slipsQATAR LNG EXPANSION SLIPS0200 kmat 25°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

The strait is the interchange. Each line is a good the shock travels by; each stop is a country on it. A figure at a stop is that country's share of its imports of that good that pass through Hormuz. The producers feed it first; their figure is the share of their exports that passes the strait. Dashed lines are the pipelines round it. Every figure is listed below with its source. Not to scale.

GULF PRODUCERS: SHARE OF EXPORTS THROUGHTHE STRAITIran100.0% FH-1374Kuwait100.0% FH-1214Qatar (LNG)93.0% FH-1303Iraq89.6% FH-1333Saudi Arabia82.0% FH-1527United Arab Emirates63.0% FH-1253Vietnam80.0% T2A-0046South Korea68.0% FH-0750Japan67.7% CL-0003Taiwan62.0% T2A-0004Bangladesh50.0% T2M-0109China46.6% CL-0001CRUDE OILPakistan90.0% T2A-0077India55.1% FH-0786Taiwan34.0% T2A-0013China33.0% FH-0098South Korea20.0% FH-0127European Union8.08% FH-0972LNGStrait of HormuzUAE Habshan-Fujairah crude line · 1.8 mb/d pipelines_v1:are-adcopIraq-Türkiye Kirkuk-Ceyhan crude line · 1.52 mb/d pipelines_v1:irq-tur-kirkuk-ceyhanIran line to the Gulf of Oman coast (schematic)Saudi East-West crude line · 7.0 mb/d pipelines_v1:sau-east-westGULF PRODUCERS: SHARE OF EXPORTS THROUGHTHE STRAITIran100.0% FH-1374Kuwait100.0% FH-1214Qatar (LNG)93.0% FH-1303Iraq89.6% FH-1333Saudi Arabia82.0% FH-1527United Arab Emirates63.0% FH-1253Strait of HormuzUAE Habshan-Fujairah crude line· 1.8 mb/dpipelines_v1:are-adcopIraq-Türkiye Kirkuk-Ceyhancrude line · 1.52 mb/dpipelines_v1:irq-tur-kirkuk-ceyhanIran line to the Gulf of Omancoast (schematic)Saudi East-West crude line ·7.0 mb/dpipelines_v1:sau-east-westCRUDE OILVietnam80.0% T2A-0046South Korea68.0% FH-0750Japan67.7% CL-0003Taiwan62.0% T2A-0004Bangladesh50.0% T2M-0109China46.6% CL-0001LNGPakistan90.0% T2A-0077India55.1% FH-0786Taiwan34.0% T2A-0013China33.0% FH-0098South Korea20.0% FH-0127European Union8.08% FH-0972

Every figure on the diagram, with its source

If

By 30 Jun 2027, no LNG has been produced from the first North Field East train, as QatarEnergy states or two independent sources report; the event is judged on that date.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. World gas supplyA start after mid-2027 keeps the LNG market tighter for longer [2].
  3. Qatar's budgetFitch's path back to surplus in 2027 rests on gas output recovering [4].

Goods 1

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Who is exposed

Share of LNG imports through Hormuz

Sectors
Energy and pipelines
Goods
LNG
Straits
Strait of Hormuz

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    On time

    The first train starts in the first half of 2027.

  2. S2

    Strait slip

    Equipment and carriers stay blocked and the start moves to late 2027.

  3. S3

    War slip

    Renewed strikes damage the site or halt work.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Feed gas introduced at the first train
S2New guidance from QatarEnergy
S3New damage reported at Ras Laffan

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 30 Jun 2027 End of the first half of 2027, QatarEnergy's start target [2] Tentative · Strature date

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · QATAR · strature.net

The other side

The train is reported ready ahead of guidance [6], Qatar has not been hit since 1 April [5], and Fitch sees only a small impact on the first phase [4].

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Qatar's North Field East gas expansion to begin output in mid-2026. The New Arab · 21 May 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. QatarEnergy's LNG expansion faces delays from Hormuz crisis. Offshore Engineer (Reuters) · 21 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity for up to five years. gCaptain (Reuters) · 19 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Fitch Affirms Qatar at 'AA'; Outlook Negative. Fitch Ratings (via Zawya) · 4 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. FIBA still planning for Basketball World Cup in Qatar in 2027 as scheduled. AP (via WTOP) · 5 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  6. Launch of new Qatar LNG train moves to counter Iranian attack losses. Baird Maritime (Reuters) · 7 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks