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World risk · Energy and resources

A missile or drone damages Qatar's gas plants at Ras Laffan or Mesaieed again

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, a missile or drone (not interception debris) damages an LNG, gas, refining or petrochemical facility at Ras Laffan or Mesaieed, as Qatar's government or QatarEnergy states or two independent sources report.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth6
Depth3
Duration6
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. WSJ, relayed by The National: Washington warned Gulf states to prepare for a renewed US campaign; Qatari mediators gave Iran a new draft deal [5]
  2. QatarEnergy: normal gas operations could resume within weeks of the strait reopening; GTL repairs due in the first quarter of 2027 [6]

Why it matters

On 18 Mar 2026 Qatar's foreign ministry blamed Iranian missiles for fires and damage at Ras Laffan, the hub of its gas exports. Two of 14 LNG trains, about 17% of export capacity, are out for three to five years, QatarEnergy's chief executive told Reuters. Qatar has not been hit since 1 April, FIBA's chief said in June; reported US plans for a renewed campaign after the midterms put the plants back in range.

Why Likelihood 4 Brakes: Qatar's mediation; no hit since 1 April; Fitch's lower risk view. Two drivers with blockers holding gives 4.

Why Impact 5 Threshold case one damaging hit on one facility.

The other facts on file (6)
  • Qatar suspended LNG production after attacks on Ras Laffan and on a water tank at a Mesaieed power plant; the source does not say who fired [1] (2 Mar 2026)
  • Qatar's foreign ministry condemned what it called an Iranian attack causing fires and significant damage at Ras Laffan and expelled Iran's military and security attaches; Iran's earlier threats named sites at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed (Al Jazeera) [1] (18 Mar 2026)
  • Two of 14 LNG trains (12.8 Mtpa, 17% of capacity) and one of two GTL plants damaged; repairs three to five years; about US$20bn a year of lost revenue; QatarEnergy would declare force majeure on long-term contracts with buyers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China (chief executive to Reuters) [2] (19 Mar 2026)
  • FIBA secretary general: Qatar not affected by the hostilities since 1 April [4] (5 Jun 2026)
  • Fitch: the risks of further severe damage have reduced since March; further damage to LNG infrastructure a downgrade trigger [3] (4 Sep 2026)
  • Strature forecast F-0074 (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran): 61% (21 Aug 2026) on 21 Aug 2026, resolves 20 Nov 2026 [7] (21 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

Strait of HormuzSAUDI ARABIAIRANIRAQOMANUAEStrait of Hormuz11. A missile or drone damages Qatar's gas plants at Ras Laffan or Mesaieed again: Elevated impact · possible (Ras Laffan Industrial City)1 Ras Laffan hitagainRAS LAFFAN HIT AGAIN0500 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Strait of HormuzSAUDI ARABIAIRANOMANUAE11. A missile or drone damages Qatar's gas plants at Ras Laffan or Mesaieed again: Elevated impact · possible (Ras Laffan Industrial City)1 Ras Laffan hitagainRAS LAFFAN HIT AGAIN0500 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

The strait is the interchange. Each line is a good the shock travels by; each stop is a country on it. A figure at a stop is that country's share of its imports of that good that pass through Hormuz. The producers feed it first; their figure is the share of their exports that passes the strait. Dashed lines are the pipelines round it. Every figure is listed below with its source. Not to scale.

GULF PRODUCERS: SHARE OF EXPORTS THROUGHTHE STRAITIran100.0% FH-1374Kuwait100.0% FH-1214Qatar (LNG)93.0% FH-1303Iraq89.6% FH-1333Saudi Arabia82.0% FH-1527United Arab Emirates63.0% FH-1253Vietnam80.0% T2A-0046South Korea68.0% FH-0750Japan67.7% CL-0003Taiwan62.0% T2A-0004Bangladesh50.0% T2M-0109China46.6% CL-0001CRUDE OILPakistan90.0% T2A-0077India55.1% FH-0786Taiwan34.0% T2A-0013China33.0% FH-0098South Korea20.0% FH-0127European Union8.08% FH-0972LNGStrait of HormuzUAE Habshan-Fujairah crude line · 1.8 mb/d pipelines_v1:are-adcopIraq-Türkiye Kirkuk-Ceyhan crude line · 1.52 mb/d pipelines_v1:irq-tur-kirkuk-ceyhanIran line to the Gulf of Oman coast (schematic)Saudi East-West crude line · 7.0 mb/d pipelines_v1:sau-east-westGULF PRODUCERS: SHARE OF EXPORTS THROUGHTHE STRAITIran100.0% FH-1374Kuwait100.0% FH-1214Qatar (LNG)93.0% FH-1303Iraq89.6% FH-1333Saudi Arabia82.0% FH-1527United Arab Emirates63.0% FH-1253Strait of HormuzUAE Habshan-Fujairah crude line· 1.8 mb/dpipelines_v1:are-adcopIraq-Türkiye Kirkuk-Ceyhancrude line · 1.52 mb/dpipelines_v1:irq-tur-kirkuk-ceyhanIran line to the Gulf of Omancoast (schematic)Saudi East-West crude line ·7.0 mb/dpipelines_v1:sau-east-westCRUDE OILVietnam80.0% T2A-0046South Korea68.0% FH-0750Japan67.7% CL-0003Taiwan62.0% T2A-0004Bangladesh50.0% T2M-0109China46.6% CL-0001LNGPakistan90.0% T2A-0077India55.1% FH-0786Taiwan34.0% T2A-0013China33.0% FH-0098South Korea20.0% FH-0127European Union8.08% FH-0972

Every figure on the diagram, with its source

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, a missile or drone (not interception debris) damages an LNG, gas, refining or petrochemical facility at Ras Laffan or Mesaieed, as Qatar's government or QatarEnergy states or two independent sources report.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. LNG supplyFurther damage would cut capacity Qatar plans to restart within weeks of the strait reopening [6].
  3. Public financesFitch lists new LNG damage as a downgrade trigger [3].
  4. BuyersTerm buyers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China would wait longer [2].

Goods 1

Sectors 2

  • Energy and pipelines
  • Petrochemicals

Who is exposed

Share of LNG imports through Hormuz

No figure on file: Italy, Belgium.

Sectors
Energy and pipelines, Petrochemicals
Goods
LNG
Straits
Strait of Hormuz

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Deal holds

    No renewed war; repairs and restart go ahead.

  2. S2

    War, Qatar spared

    A renewed campaign, with Qatar's mediation keeping it out of the fire.

  3. S3

    Hit again

    Salvoes reach Ras Laffan or Mesaieed.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Iran's reply to the Qatari draft deal
S2Iranian statements naming Gulf energy sites
S3An official Qatari statement on new damage

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

61%F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative)
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
050100%

Where the card uses it Strature forecast F-0074 resolves (renewed strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 20 Nov 2026 Strature forecast F-0074 resolves (renewed strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [7] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  2. Mar 2027 Gas-to-liquids plant repairs due to finish (first quarter) [6] Tentative · Outside event

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · QATAR · strature.net

The other side

Qatar is the mediator on the latest draft deal [5], it has not been hit since 1 April [4], and Fitch judges the risk of further severe damage lower than in March [3].

Connected in Strature

Sources

7 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Qatar says Iran missile attack sparks fire, causes damage at gas facility. Al Jazeera · 18 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity for up to five years. gCaptain (Reuters) · 19 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Fitch Affirms Qatar at 'AA'; Outlook Negative. Fitch Ratings (via Zawya) · 4 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. FIBA still planning for Basketball World Cup in Qatar in 2027 as scheduled. AP (via WTOP) · 5 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Oil prices up due to Houthi strikes and US threat to renew Iran war. The National · 28 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  6. QatarEnergy's LNG expansion faces delays from Hormuz crisis. Offshore Engineer (Reuters) · 21 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  7. S-001: Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike (F-0074). Strature forecast register · 21 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks