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World risk · Finance and markets

Uruguay's economy shrinks for two quarters in a row

The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Uruguay's central bank (BCU) publishes a fall in seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP in two consecutive quarters.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated rising this month

Likelihood ↑ Since 15 Sep 2026: the BCU reported that second-quarter GDP fell on the quarter.

Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. IMF staff: growth 1.3% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027; drought since Q3 2025; oil and fertiliser shocks; inflation 4.6% in August vs 4.5% target; deficit 4.1% of GDP in 2026 [4]
  2. Seasonally adjusted GDP down 0.8% q/q and 0.5% y/y in Q2 2026; farming, fishing and mining down 22% on drought; exports down 3.9%; private consumption up 2.6%; ministry forecast cut from 2.2% to 1.6%; analyst median 1% [1]

Why it matters

Uruguay's GDP fell 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026, as drought hit the soybean crop. A fall in the third quarter, due in December, would make two in a row. IMF staff still expect 1.3% growth in 2026 and a rebound in 2027, on strong consumption and rising real wages.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the second-quarter fall; the drought; oil and fertiliser price shocks. Brakes: strong consumption and real wages; IMF staff still expect growth in 2026 and a rebound in 2027. No cited source forecasts a third-quarter fall. Re-score on the BCU's December release.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: two small quarterly falls.

The other facts on file (3)
  • GDP up 0.8% q/q in Q1 2026 [2] (22 Jun 2026)
  • GDP down 0.2% q/q in Q3 2025 [3] (2 Mar 2026)
  • GDP up 1.8% in 2025; Q4 2025 up 0.1% q/q [5] (Mar 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Uruguay's economy shrinks for two quarters in a row. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Uruguay's economy shrinks for two quarters in a rowImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Uruguay
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · URUGUAY · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Uruguay's central bank (BCU) publishes a fall in seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP in two consecutive quarters.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Public financesIMF staff project a 2026 deficit of 4.1% of GDP; weaker growth would widen it (Strature's view) [4].
  3. Farm exportsThe drought already cut exports [1].
  4. RatesWith inflation near target, a downturn would test the central bank's stance (Strature's view) [4].

Goods 1

  • Soybeans

Sectors 2

  • Agriculture and food
  • Banks and insurers

Countries 1

  • Uruguay primary

Who is exposed

Countries
Uruguay
Sectors
Agriculture and food, Banks and insurers
Goods
Soybeans

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    One-quarter dip

    The third quarter grows as consumption holds.

  2. S2

    Technical recession

    The third quarter falls too.

  3. S3

    Later double dip

    A weak 2027 harvest or El Niño weather brings two falls in 2027.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The BCU's third-quarter release in December 2026
S2The BCU's third-quarter release in December 2026
S3The BCU's analyst survey cutting 2027 growth

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 BCU national accounts for the third quarter of 2026 (re-score on release) [1] Tentative · Strature date
  2. Mar 2027 BCU accounts for the fourth quarter of 2026 [5] Tentative · Outside event
  3. 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [4] Declared · Strature date

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · URUGUAY · strature.net

The other side

Strong consumption, real wage gains and a 2027 rebound [4], with new openings from the EU-Mercosur agreement that IMF staff name as an upside [4].

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Economía uruguaya cayó 0,8% en el segundo trimestre del año y complica la meta de crecimiento. La República (Colombia) · 16 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. La economía uruguaya creció 0,8% el primer trimestre del año. El Observador · 22 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. Orsi's first year in power: unemployment and crime fall, wages edge up, growth moderate in Uruguay. MercoPress · 2 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Uruguay: declaración final de la misión del Artículo IV de 2026. IMF · 24 Sep 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. PBI de Uruguay crece 1,8% en 2025 y está por debajo de la previsión oficial. El Cronista · 25 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks