Remittances to El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras fall year on year in a quarter
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, central-bank data show combined family remittances to El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras for any calendar quarter from Q4 2026 to Q3 2027 below the same quarter a year earlier.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Likelihood 4 to 5; Likelihood trend to up.
- El Salvador: US$7,619.9m in January-September 2026, up 3.5%, against 18.5% a year earlier (BCR) [2]
- Honduras: US$10,098.8m in January-September 2026, up 11.2% (BCH) [7]
- USCIS page still shows El Salvador's TPS continued through 9 Sep 2026 [6]
- Guatemala: US$7,037.1m in Q3 2026 against US$6,840.7m in Q3 2025; August and May 2026 below the same months of 2025 [1]
- Guatemala: Q4 2025 US$6,561.9m, about 16% above Q4 2024 [1]
Why it matters
Family remittances from the United States carry the economies of northern Central America; in El Salvador they were about a quarter of GDP in 2025. After a surge in 2025, growth slowed each quarter of 2026 in official data: Guatemala's Q3 2026 inflow was only a little above Q3 2025, and El Salvador's nine-month growth fell to 3.5% from 18.5% a year earlier. Honduras still grew about 9% in Q3, so the three together were still up about 4%. The first quarter compared, Q4 2025, is a high base.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: growth falling quarter by quarter in official data; a high Q4 2025 base; two single months already below a year earlier in Guatemala; TPS losses for Hondurans and an undecided Salvadoran TPS. Brakes: all three still growing in Q3 2026, Honduras fastest, so the three together were still up.
The other facts on file (4)
- El Salvador: US$5,060.6m in the first half of 2026, up 4.5% (BCR) [3] (Jul 2026)
- El Salvador: remittances US$9.9bn in 2025, about 24% of GDP; about 200,000 TPS holders; TPS date of 9 Sep 2026 passed with no decision [4] (11 Sep 2026)
- Ninth Circuit stayed the order that vacated the end of TPS for Honduras and Nicaragua (over 51,000 Hondurans, about 3,000 Nicaraguans) [5] (10 Feb 2026)
- Honduras: US$6,515.4m in the first half of 2026, up 12.3%, against US$5,799.6m (BCH) [8] (15 Jul 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, central-bank data show combined family remittances to El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras for any calendar quarter from Q4 2026 to Q3 2027 below the same quarter a year earlier.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- HouseholdsRemittances pay for food, rent and school in rural areas; a fall cuts consumption at once.
- Banks and the dollarRemittance inflows feed deposits and the external accounts in all three; El Salvador is dollarised [4].
- Public financeConsumption taxes follow household spending; no sized figure was found.
Sectors 2
- Banks and insurers
- Households
Countries 4
- El Salvador primary
- Guatemala primary
- Honduras primary
- Nicaragua
Who is exposed
No figure on file: El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, United States, Mexico.
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers, Households
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Soft landing
Growth stays small but positive through 2027.
- S2
First fall
A high-base quarter turns negative.
- S3
Status shock
A TPS termination for El Salvador or removals of Honduran holders cut the senders.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Banguat's Q4 2026 total above US$6,561.9m by mid-January 2027 |
| S2 | Guatemala's December 2026 month below US$2,241.3m |
| S3 | A Federal Register notice on El Salvador's TPS by March 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jan 2027 Banguat and BCR publish December 2026 and full-year remittance data [1] Tentative · Outside event
- Mar 2027 Automatic six-month extension of El Salvador's TPS ends unless DHS acts [4] Tentative · Outside event
- Apr 2027 Q1 2027 remittance data published [1] Tentative · Outside event
- 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
A slowdown that stops short of a fall would ease the exchange-rate pressure of the earlier surge in Guatemala, and firms that serve migrants' families with savings and housing credit gain from steadier flows (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- El Salvador
- Guatemala
- Honduras
- Nicaragua
- El Salvador's IMF programme stalls: no further review completed by 1 Nov 2027 Shares a channel: El Salvador's external accounts lean on remittances, which the IMF programme also watches.
- El Niño drought pushes Guatemala or Honduras past a food-crisis threshold Shares a channel: Rural households in the same countries depend on both harvests and remittances.
- The US ends Temporary Protected Status for Salvadorans Driven by: An end to TPS would cut the number of Salvadoran senders in the US.
- Money sent home from Russia to Uzbekistan falls a tenth in a quarter Shares a channel: The same channel in another corridor: household income sent home by migrant workers.
- Gulf remittances to Bangladesh or Pakistan fall a tenth Shares a channel: The same channel in another corridor: household income sent home by migrant workers.
Sources
8 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Ingreso de divisas por remesas familiares, 2002-2026. Banco de Guatemala · 2026-10 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- El Salvador: crecimiento de remesas se desacelera a 3,5% a septiembre. Revista EyN · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- El Salvador: remesas familiares crecieron un 4,5% en primer semestre. Revista EyN · 2026-07 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- 200,000 Salvadorans hopeful of protection from deportation. Jamaica Gleaner (AP) · 11 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Court says US can end Honduran, Nicaraguan, Nepalese migrant protections. The Peninsula (Reuters/AP) · 10 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Temporary Protected Status Designated Country: El Salvador. USCIS · 7 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Remesas a Honduras crecen 11,2 % en tercer trimestre y suman US$10.098 millones. Revista EyN (EFE) · 23 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Remesas a Honduras crecieron 12,3% en el primer semestre y suman US$6.515 millones. Revista EyN (EFE) · 15 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review; Likelihood 4 to 5; Likelihood trend up · All risks