Food and fertiliser · Strature analysis, not from the brief
Food and fertiliser: what is at stake for Guatemala
Guatemala imports 67.1% of the grain it eats, maize above all (1,954 kt in 2024/25). Its farms use 223,628 t of nitrogen a year, all imported.
Theme band Medium
67.1%
of grain use met by imports (2024/25)
1,954
kt of maize imported (2024/25)
88.3%
of rice use met by imports (2024/25)
223,628
t of nitrogen used on farms (2024)
Read the full panel
Risks
- Maize imports were 1,954 kt in 2024/25 and wheat 917 kt; wheat imports cover all wheat use.
- Rice imports meet 88.3% of rice use. The Thai rice benchmark rose from US$436.8/t in 2022 to US$588.4/t in 2024, while India restricted rice exports in 2022 and 2023.
- Urea averaged US$700.0/t in 2022, 45% above 2021, and potassium chloride rose 59%. A repeat would raise the cost of 223,628 t of nitrogen use, all imported.
- About 3.2 million people were projected in acute food insecurity in July-September 2026 after a dry spell, a press report of the IPC analysis says (estimate). Estimate from press or commentary
Opportunities
- Guatemala exports palm oil: 566 kt in 2024/25, 1.3% of world exports, too small to set prices.
- Canada, an origin outside the Black Sea, shipped C$187.3m of wheat to Guatemala in 2025 (Statistics Canada).
- The staple import bill is 0.77% of GDP on 2024 prices (about US$0.87bn), below the bill line.
Uncertainties
- Fertiliser imports by origin are not shown: no open table by origin was found in the search for this reading.
- The cereal share uses USDA's four grains and leaves out sorghum.
What to watch
- 6 Nov 2026FAO Food Price Index for October: cereals and vegetable oils.
- 10 Nov 2026USDA WASDE: world and US maize balances.
- Oct 2026-Feb 2027IPC projection: 2.6 million people in acute food insecurity.
- 4 Dec 2026FAO Food Price Index for November.
Exposure by channel
| Channel | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cereal import dependenceDependence | 67.1% 2024/25Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley) | Medium | High ≥70% · Medium 40–70% · Low 25–40% |
| Staple import billRevenue | 0.77% of GDP 2024/25 volumes, 2024 pricesStaple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDP | Below line | High ≥4% of GDP · Medium 2–4% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Drawn to scale from zero. * Our calculation from the cited figures.
Sources cited
- USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Corn (maize), Imports (2024/25; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
- FAO, FAOSTAT: Fertilizers by Nutrient (RFN) (2024; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
- USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Wheat, Imports (2024/25; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
- World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), annual prices, nominal US$ (CMO-Historical-Data-Annual.xlsx) (2024; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
- USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Palm oil, Exports (2024/25; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
- Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade open data (71-607-X2021004), total exports by HS2 and HS6 and country, 2025 and 2024 (customs basis) (2025; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
- FAO, FAO Food Price Index (release dates) (2026; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
- USDA Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (release schedule) (2026; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
Estimates from press or commentary
- Guatemala: El Nino amenaza con dejar sin alimento a 3,2 millones de personas (Revista E&N, Aug 2026) (Jul-Sep 2026; retrieved 3 Nov 2026)
Our calculations
- Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley): 67.1% (= 100 × sum of imports / sum of domestic consumption, four grains, capped at 100)
- Milled rice imports as a share of domestic consumption: 88.3% (= 100 × imports / domestic consumption)
- Staple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDP: 0.77% of GDP (= sum(PSD imports × Pink Sheet 2024 annual price) / GDP 2024)
- Wheat imports as a share of domestic consumption: 100% (= 100 × imports / domestic consumption)
- Share of world palm oil exports: 1.3% (= 100 × country exports / sum of exports of every country PSD reports (EU as one bloc))
Adapted from Statistics Canada data, used under the Statistics Canada Open Licence. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.